1/02/06

THREE INDUSTRIES POISED FOR GROWTH IN 2006

Three industries projected to grow in this new year are healthcare, biosciences, and technology.  Recruiters and economists say these fields will lead the nation in new job creation in 2006.

According to Moody's Economy.com, projections include:

• Computer-Systems-Design and related service companies:  81,000, up 6.8% from 2005
• Physicians' Offices:  86,000, up 4% from 2005
• Biotech companies: a subset of the bioscience industry:  20,000, up 2.7%
• Hospitals:  100,000, up 2.4% from 2005

The most growth in these industries will be seen in rank-and-file clinical and technical jobs, but opportunities for executives and professionals will increase as companies in these fields expand.  The forecast comes amid a healthy outlook for the broader senior-level job market, recruiters say.

HEALTH CARE

The healthcare industry will require more employees, largely as a result of the needs of aging baby-boomers. There is also growing popularity for workplace health programs at large companies - companies promoting wellness programs within their organizations are using occupational health nurses to create great work environments.

The most growth in healthcare positions will be for:

• Doctors
• Nurses
• Technicians

There will also be an increased need for business managers and professionals with business focused analytical and strategic skills, including:

• Chief Executive Officers
• Chief Operating Officers
• Chief Nursing Officers
• Compliance Officers
• Managed Care Directors
• Medical Economists
• Directors of Business Development 

While those in "officer" positions usually need hospital experience, candidates for the other jobs do not necessarily need a hospital background.

BIOSCIENCES

Bioscience industries include medical device, pharmaceutical, and agricultural chemical companies, research and testing firms, and academic health centers.  Growth in this industry is also attributed to the needs of aging baby boomers. 

Hot jobs in biosciences include:

• Scientists for product development teams 
• Sales / Sales Managers
• Marketing
• Manufacturing
• Quality 
• Senior Clinical Managers
• Global Sourcing Managers

Genentech Inc., a biotechnology company in South San Francisco with about 9,000 employees, expects to recruit at "an aggressive pace" in 2006, citing positive clinical trials as one factor driving recruiting.  The company is hiring in research and development, manufacturing, commercialization, and business support.

A science background is usually helpful for breaking into biosciences.  One exception might be in sales.  "There are just not enough good pharmaceutical sales people, and companies are looking for great candidates who can be taught."

TECHNOLOGY

Recruiters report hiring in a wide range of technology companies, driven by the demand for technological advances in industries as diverse as healthcare, automotive manufacturing, and consumer products.

Among technologies hottest jobs will be:

• Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) applications Managers and Teams, which help companies better track business data
• Data Integration Project Managers
• Global Sourcing Managers
• Sales Managers
• Senior Executives - including CEOs
• Sales / Engineering in wireless, security, storage and Internet protocol communications

Cisco Systems looks for sales personnel with 8-10 years of comparable experience.

11/29/05

MERCK ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF 7,000 JOBS - 11% OF WORK FORCE

Merck & Co, the world's fifth largest pharmaceutical company with 63,382 employees, worldwide, announced the elimination of 7,000 employees and the closure of 5 of its 31 drug-making plants, a basic research site, and 2 pre-clinical development sites by 2008. Half of the employees will be from the United States.  People who are to lose their jobs by the end of the year will be notified by December 16th.

This is an attempt to reduce costs to match falling sales resulting from withdrawal of the best-selling pain killer Vioxx after a clinical trial linked it to heart attacks and strokes and competition with generic pharmaceuticals.  Zocor, its biggest selling and most profitable medicine loses its patent protection in 2006.

Merck's key drugs include:

• High cholesterol medications - Zocor, Vytorin, and Zetia
• Osteoporosis medication - Fosomax
• Asthma and seasonal allergy medication - Singular

 Revenues for 2004 were $23 billion and profits were $5.8 billion.

11/21/05

GM WILL ELIMINATE 30,000 JOBS

General Motors Corporation, in an attempt to achieve $7B in cost reductions on a running rate basis by the end of 2006 - $1B above its previously indicated target, announced today that 30,000 manufacturing jobs and 9 assembly, stamping, and powertrain plants in North America will be eliminated and closed by 2008.

It is also anticipated that about 7% of salaried, non-union staff will be cut by the end of 2006, although specific numbers of those were not given.

Plants reportedly will close in:

• Doraville, Georgia
• Flint, Michigan
• Lansing, Michigan
• Ypsilanti, Michigan
• Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
• Portland, Oregon
• Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• Portland, Oregon
• Ontario, Canada

In addition there will be cutbacks in shifts and production lines in other plants.

11/21/05

THE SAFEST AND MOST DANGEROUS PLACES TO LIVE IN THE U.S.

According to Morgan Quitno Press, the publisher of City Crime Rankings, an annual reference book 

 SAFEST

1. Newton, Massachusetts
2. Clarkstown, New York
3. Amherst, New York
4. Mission Viejo, California
5. Brick Township, New Jersey
6. Troy, Michigan
7. Thousand Oaks, California
8. Round Rock, Texas
9. Lake Forest, California
10. Cary, North Carolina

MOST DANGEROUS

1. Camden, New Jersey
2. Detroit, Michigan
3. St. Louis, Missouri
4. Flint, Michigan
5. Richmond, Virginia
6. Baltimore, Maryland
7. Atlanta, Georgia
8. New Orleans, Louisiana
9. Gary, Indiana
10. Birmingham, Alabama

11/18/05

ARE YOU ADDICTED TO WORK?

What is a workaholic?

It is a person who is driven to put in long hours by internal needs, typically a desire to escape intimacy and social relationships.  Workaholics often come from dysfunctional homes and have learned that putting in long hours helps to calm their anxiety about other aspects of life.  But like excessive drinking and overeating, workaholism only masks the underlying problem while creating other difficulties.

What is the difference between a hard worker and a workaholic?  

• A hard worker will sprint at the office, managing large amounts of work efficiently and well.  Hard workers know how to relax and enjoy life away from the office and share outside interests with family and friends.
• A workaholic constantly thinks and talks about work, even when at home or on vacation.  As a result, the workaholic's family suffers, and despite long hours at the office, productivity lags - perfectionism overrides efficiency.

Some say the physical and mental problems stemming from workaholism may cost U.S. companies as much as $160 billion per year.

The divorce rate among workaholics is reportedly 40% higher than the rest of the population.

What are the physical signs of workaholism?

• Headaches
• Fatigue
• Indigestion
• Chest Pain
• Shortness of breath
• Nervous Tics
• Dizziness

What are some behavioral signs of workaholism?

• Temper outbursts
• Restlessness
• Insomnia
• Difficulty relaxing
• Irritability
• Impatience
• Forgetfulness
• Difficulty concentrating
• Boredom
• Mood swings from euphoria to depression

What kind of bosses do workaholics make?

Typically, workaholics make terrible bosses because they often:

• Micromanage subordinates, crushing their creativity and initiative, and making unreasonable demands on them
• Are reluctant to promote a rising star, fearing that the up-and-comer might eclipse him at the office due to their own lack of confidence and self-esteem
• Create an unpleasant atmosphere that leads to morale problems, burnout, absenteeism, anxiety, and high turnover among subordinates.

Over time, employers don't benefit from workaholics.  Hard workers tend to miss fewer days than workaholics, develop better working relationships with others in the office, especially subordinates, and are more efficient.

In Chained to the Desk:  A Guidebook for Workaholics Their Partners and Children, and the Clinicians Who Treat Them, Dr. Byron E. Robinson offers this test to determine if you are a workaholic.  Do you:

• Prefer to do things yourself rather than to ask for help?
• Get impatient when you have to wait for someone or when something takes too long?
• Seem to be in a hurry and racing against the clock?
• Get irritated when interrupted in the middle of doing something?
• Keep busy and have many irons in the fire?
• Find yourself doing two or three things at one time, such as eating lunch and talking on the phone while writing a memo?
• Overcommit yourself to biting off more than you can chew?
• Feel guilty when you are not working on something?
• Find it important for you to see the concrete results of what you do?
• Have more interest in the final result of your work than in the process?
• Feel things never seem to move or get done fast enough for you?
• Lose your temper when things don't go your way or work out to suit you?
• Ask the same questions over again without realizing it after you have already given the answer once?
• Spend a lot of time mentally planning and thinking about future events while tuning out the here and now?
• Find yourself continuing to work after your co-workers have called it quits?
• Get angry when people don't meet your standards of perfection?
• Get upset when you are in situations where you cannot be in control?
• Tend to put yourself under pressure from self-imposed deadlines when you work?
• Have difficulty relaxing when you are not working?
• Spend more time working than socializing with friends, or on hobbies or leisure activities?
• Dive into projects to get a head start before all of the phases have been finalized?
• Get upset with yourself for making even the smallest mistake?
• Put more time, thought, and effort into your work than into your relationships with loved ones and friends?
• Forget, ignore, or minimize celebrations such as birthdays, reunions, anniversaries, or holidays?
• Make important decisions without having all the facts and have a chance to think them through?

11/6/05

JOB GROWTH SLOWER THAN EXPECTED IN OCTOBER

The Labor Department reported a net gain of 56,000 jobs in October, compared with a net loss of 8,000 jobs in the revised September reading.  Economists had expected a net gain of 100,000 jobs in the most recent period.  

According to the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the job loss reported in September was caused by the impact of Hurricane Katrina and the weaker-than-expected number in October was the result of softness in the labor market outside the storm-affected areas.  It was suggested that higher oil prices may have reduced employer hiring plans.

The unemployment rate, based on a different survey, improved to 5% from 5.1% in September. Economists had predicted that the unemployment rate would remain the same.

The average hourly wage rose 8 cents, or 0.5%, to $16.27 - up 2.9% in the last 12 months.

Employees paychecks apparently lost ground on prices.  A jump in gasoline prices raised the overall Consumer Price Index, the government's key inflation index, up 4.7% over the 12 months ending in September.

STATE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES FOR SEPTEMBER 2005

10/10/05

HOTTEST BIG CITIES FOR JOBS

Las Vegas and Phoenix are the hottest job markets in the nation, according to the latest rankings from bizjournals and American City Business Journals.  Rapid growth in their population and job bases, coupled with low unemployment rates have propelled Las Vegas to first place and Phoenix to second place among America's 87 major labor markets with more than 250,000 jobs.

"People like to be in a place that's doing well, which is certainly the case in Las Vegas and Phoenix," says Howard Wall, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. "But is job growth causing people to move there? Or is population growth creating more jobs? I don't think the two can be separated."

Las Vegas and Phoenix are the hottest job markets in the nation, according to the latest rankings from bizjournals and American City Business Journals. Rapid growth in their population and job bases, coupled with low unemployment rates, have propelled Las Vegas to first place and Phoenix to second place among America's 87 major labor markets:

• Las Vegas' workforce expanded 7.7% during the past year, creating 62,700 jobs.  No other major market grew faster than 5.6%.

• Phoenix picked up 62,800 jobs in the same 12-month period and cut its unemployment rate by more than half of a percentage point.

Washington, D.C., in third place, added the most jobs in the past year, 78,400.  "The reason is federal procurement spending.  That's what' driving job growth here,". says Stephen Fuller, director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University.

Sarasota, Florida, in fourth place, experienced a job growth rate of 5.6%

Orlando, Florida, in fifth place, had a job growth rate of 4.1%.

At the very bottom of the nation's biggest job markets is Detroit, which lost 6,400 jobs during the past 12 months and has a dismal unemployment rate of 7.7%, surpassed only by Fresno, California's 8.4%.

HOTTEST JOB MARKETS

COLDEST JOB MARKETS (from worst to better)

10/1/05

CHALLENGING JOBS MAY LOWER THE RISK OF ALZHEIMER'S

People with challenging jobs may may have to work hard, but the payoff could be some protection against Alzheimer's disease later in life, new research suggests.

In the study of more than 10,000 Swedish adults who were part of a twin registry, researchers found that people with a history of "complex" work had a lower risk of Alzheimer's disease.  The same held true among twin pairs in which one was affected by Alzheimer's nut the other was not -- a situation that factors in the influence of genes and upbringing.

The findings suggest that complex jobs may provide some mental exercise that helps delay the onset of dementia later in life, sad the study's lead author, Dr. Ross Andel of the University of South Florida in Tampa. 

The study found that the complexity of the worker's interactions with other people - with teaching as an example of higher complexity -- showed the strongest link to lower Alzheimer's risk.  Men and women with the most challenging jobs in this regard were 22% less likely to develop the disease compared with those with the least complex work.

These individuals also had a slightly lower risk of all forms of dementia, according to findings published in the Journal of Gerontology:  Psychological Sciences.

Scientists speculate that people who stay mentally engaged throughout their lives may have a greater "cognitive reserve" that allows them to withstand more of the brain damage seen in Alzheimer's disease before symptoms begin.

Overall, people whose main lifetime occupation required more complex interpersonal relationships, such as managing people, making negotiations, or dealing with customers -- were less likely to have Alzheimer's disease.

Among twins discordant for dementia, there was some evidence that complex work with data -- compiling, organizing, or analyzing information, for instance -- was protective.

Complex work was related to lower Alzheimer's risk regardless of a person's education, the researchers found.

The findings fit in with other research that has linked higher education, as well as mentally stimulating leisure activities like reading and doing crossword puzzles, to lower the risk of Alzheimer's disease.

9/19/05 

JOB SITES FOR HURRICANE KATRINA SURVIVORS

Several Web sites are offering postings from employers eager to hire those left without jobs by Hurricane Katrina, including:

www.craigslist.org - the hub for a network of 175 local classified ad Web sites, lists from employers throughout the U.S. with more than 1,000 ads for jobs from entry to senior level.  To find jobs in a particular location, choose from a list of cities on the site's homepage, and search the job listings using the keyword "Katrina."  A section called "Katrina Relief" lists temporary-employment opportunities.

www.langsheatingandair.com - Lang's Heating & Air Conditioning in Hilton Head, SC is advertising openings for 7 technicians on craigslist.  They will pay for relocation and up to 120 days of housing.  To apply, call collect 1 (843) 681-6824, or complete the online form at their web site.  At least 2 years experience is required for heating and air conditioning technician jobs and 5 years for refrigeration technician jobs.

www.katrinajobrelief.com - a site for which more than 50 industry associations and trade groups across the country are inviting members and others to post jobs for evacuees at no cost.  Job hunters can post their résumés at the site for free.  Recently, about 2,850 ads were found, 700 from Florida employers.  Salaries range from minimum wage to about $100K annually.  Most jobs are in healthcare and skilled labor.

www.jobsearch.org/katrinajobs - a job board published by the U.S. Department of Labor, from America's Job Bank, is advertising temporary clean-up, recovery, and reconstruction positions open to all job seekers.  Employers can post ads at no cost.  During a recent visit, 37,000 jobs in a variety of fields were offered.  It is free to post your résumé and store cover letters.

www.americanstaffing.net - a database of 7,500 staffing agencies nationwide pledged to help Katrina survivors find jobs.  Jobs available are in healthcare, office / clerical, technical, information technology, professional/management, and industrial occupations.  Full and part-time jobs are available from entry to senior level.

www.katrinahospitalityjobs.com - postings include 65,000 jobs from entry to senior level in restaurants, resorts, hotels, retail companies, and executive search firms.

www.houstonemployment.com - 200 ads were recently posted from minimum wage to $85K annually in a wide range of fields.

www.AttorneyAssist.org - lists jobs, housing, and office space for law professionals displaced by Hurricane Katrina.  The site is from the Atlanta Bar Association and ads are free to post.  Recently, 90 jobs were listed.  Katrina survivors can post a brief profile about their employment, housing, or other needs.

www.BirminghamEmployment.com - about 100 jobs for Katrina survivors in fields such as sales, transportation, hospitality, information technology, engineering, and others are posted.

www.laworks.net/jobs - the Louisiana Department of Labor provides a list of employment opportunities with a search category near the bottom called "Hurricane Katrina."  It includes about 200 jobs in a variety of industries.  Narrow your results by searching for openings in a specific parish, district, or other specific area.

www.Memphistravel.com/ jobs - the Memphis Convention & Visitors Bureau has an alphabetical list of about 100 local employers offering jobs from Katrina survivors.

8/19/05

LARGE TURNOVER EXPECTED IN TEACHING RANKS

Forty percent of public school teachers plan to exit the profession within five years, the highest rate since at least 1990.  

The rate is expected to be even greater among high school teachers, half of whom plan to be out of teaching by 2010, according to the National Center for Education Information.

Retirement is the dominant factor.  In 1996, 24% of teachers were age 50 or older.  By 2005, 42% of teachers are 50 or older.  

The expected turnover rate will deprive school districts of an enormous amount of teaching experience just as the U.S. pushes to get a top instructor in every class.

The proportion of teachers with at least 25 years in the classroom has more than doubled in the last 15 years, from 12% to 27%.  The teacher corps has grown older across the board because more people are moving into the field in their 30s and 40s.

School districts are expanding their recruitment beyond colleges of education to other career fields, where experts in math, science, and other subjects are being trained to teach.  Broadening this pool of prospective teachers will help fill the void of retiring teachers.

Younger people remain a big force in public teaching, with one in three teachers 39 or younger.  But many of those teachers no longer think of teaching as a 30-year career.

Overall, 83% of teachers say they are satisfied with their jobs, a level that has held steady over the last 15 years.  

Reasons for considering leaving teaching include:

• Retirement:
• Concerns over pay
• Dissatisfaction with school bureaucracy
• Plans to work in another education job

8/18/05

JOBS LINKED TO DEGENERATIVE BRAIN DISEASES

Research findings of a study of 2.6 million U.S. death records from 22 states from 1992 to 1998 and published in the American Journal of Industrial Medicine suggest that a wide range of  occupations, from farming to teaching, may be potential risk factors for degenerative brain diseases, such as Alzheimer's, Parkinson's disease, Presenile Dementia, and motor neuron diseases. Of all deaths for those years, just over 4% were attributed, at least in part, to neurodegenerative disease.

Many could be explained by on-the-job exposures to chemicals that farmers, welders, and hairdressers routinely use or inhale.  Other findings, such as the elevated risks among teachers, clergy, and bank researchers, are not easily explained, according to the researchers, led by Robert M. Park of the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health.

Highest risk for Alzheimer's disease were:

• Bank Tellers
• Clergy
• Aircraft Mechanics
• Hairdressers.  

Highest risk for Parkinson's disease were:

• Biological Scientists
• Teachers
• Clergy and other religious workers

Highest risk for Presenile Dementia, a form of dementia that arises before the age of 65 were:

• Dentists
• Graders and Sorters in industries other than agriculture
• Clergy

Highest risk for motor neuron disease, the most common of which is amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, also know as Lou Gehrig's disease:

• Veterinarians
• Hairdressers
• Graders and Sorters

These diseases are marked by progressive, irreversible damage to cells of the central nervous system.  It is thought that genes influence susceptibility to the conditions, but growing evidence also points to environmental factors, including some on-the-job exposures:

• Farmers exposed to pesticides have been shown in some studies to have a higher-than-average risk of Parkinson's disease, as have welders exposed to fumes containing the mineral manganese.  Both of these occupations were assocuated with Parkinson's in the current study as well.
• Hairdressers were at increased risk of death from Alzheimer's disease, presenile dementia, and motor neuron disease, suggesting a role for hair dyes, solvents, or other chemicals used in salons.
• Dentists and dental assistants are exposed to mercury or synthetic substances used in dental work.
• Veterinarians may be exposed to some yet-identified chemical or biological substance.

Higher risks among teachers and clergy "are difficult to interpret," according to Park.  One possibility is that people in professional jobs have lower risks of common, lifestyle-related diseases like heart disease, which makes them more likely than others to die of a neurogenerative disorder. 

6/23/05

GOOD NEWS ABOUT THE GLOBAL LABOR MARKET AND OFFSHORING

According to a recent article in Fortune, in theory more than 1/10th of the developed world's service jobs could be outsourced to low-wage countries like China and India.  But in reality just 1% will be shipped out by 2008, predicts a new McKinsey Global Institute study.  That adds up to 4.1 million jobs, which sounds like a lot until one considers that an average of 4.6 million people started a new job every month in the U.S. alone in the 12 months ending March 2005.  

Additionally, the size of the available talent pool offshore isn't as large as you might think.  Only a fraction of those dirt-cheap engineers, financiers, accountants, scientists, and other professionals churned out by universities in China, India, and elsewhere can be put to use effectively by multinational corporations anytime soon.  The big problems include:

• Inadequate foreign language proficiency
• Lack of practical skills
• Unwillingness to move for a job
• Limited or no access to airports and other transportation networks

6/21/05

ENCOURAGING JOB MARKET FOR NEW COLLEGE GRADUATES

The job market for new graduates is up 13% over last year after 3 bad years because of an improvement in the economy and because the retirement of the leading edge of the baby boom generation.

The hottest job sectors, according to the National Association of Colleges and Employers are:

• Engineering
• Accounting and Finance
• Anything to do with computers
• Nursing
• Teaching

The job market is still very competitive and new grads will have to be able to back up their resumes and be able to talk about activities, projects, and leadership roles.

• 47% of those surveyed said they plan to pay more and 49% plan to maintain salaries at last year's levels.
• Fewer employers are offering medical benefits.

6/21/05

MOST EXPENSIVE CITIES

An annual report released in London Monday ranked cities based on the comparative cost of 200 items including housing, public and private transport, food, clothing, and entertainment.

Surveys are conducted in 144 cities every March.  All cities are compared to New York, which is automatically given a ranking of 100, Tokyo in comparison scored 135.

According to the survey, the cities with the highest cost of living include:

1. Tokyo, Japan
2. Osaka, Japan
3. London, England
4. Moscow, Russia
5. Seoul, South Korea
6. Geneva, Switzerland
7. Zurich, Switzerland
8. Copenhagen, Denmark
9. Hong Kong, Hong Kong
10. Oslo, Norway
11. Milan, Italy
12. Paris, France
13. New York, USA
14. Dublin, Ireland
15. St. Petersburg, Russia
16. Vienna, Austria
17. Rome, Italy
18. Stockholm. Sweden
19. Beijing, China
20. Sydney, Australia
21. Helsinki, Finland
22. Douala, Cameroon
23. Istanbul, Turkey
24. Amsterdam, Netherlands (tie), Budapest, Hungary (tie)

South America was home to the least expensive cities, with Asuncion, Paraguay the cheapest of all surveyed cities.

6/10/05

THE FIVE MOST DANGEROUS JOBS FOR TEENAGERS

The National Consumers League listed the five most dangerous jobs for teenagers:

1. Agricultural Work - accounted for 42% of work related fatalities of young workers between 1992 and 2000
2. Construction Work
3. Outdoor jobs in Landscaping, Groundskeeping, and Lawn Services
4. Work involving Tractors and All-Terrain Vehicles
5. Traveling Door-to-Door Selling of candy, magazine subscriptions, and other items - questionable crew transportation and crew leaders with criminal records

6/5/05

JOB GROWTH WEAKENS IN MAY

U.S. employers added the fewest jobs to payrolls in nearly 2 years in May, according to the Labor Department.  Employers reportedly added only 78,000 jobs in May, down sharply from the 274,000 jobs added in April.  

The generally lackluster report surprised economists.  Before the report was released, they were predicting jobs to grow by around 175,000 and the jobless rate to hold steady at 5.2% in May.

The average time that the unemployed spent in their search for work in May was 18.8 weeks, an improvement from the 19.6 weeks registered in April.

• Manufacturers cut 7,000 jobs in May, following a loss of 9,000 in April.
• Leisure and hospitality companies eliminated 6,000 jobs in May, compared to adding 63,000 jobs in April.
• Professional and business services cut 1,000 jobs in May, compared to an increase of 33,000 in April.
• Retailers added more than 10,000 jobs in May, a deceleration from the nearly 27,000 added in April.
• Construction companies added 20,000 in May, compared to 48,000 in April.

5/7/05

JOB GROWTH INCREASES IN APRIL 

The government reported yesterday that the nation's employers generated an unexpectedly large number of jobs, 274,000, in April, and gave existing employees additional hours of work. 

The employment report was the most positive news about the economy in weeks.  Some analysts think these employment numbers are an indication that all the worry about the economy experiencing a significant soft patch has been exaggerated.

Employment rose across all sectors except manufacturing.  The Bureau of Labor and Statistics also revised its estimates for February and March adding 93,000 jobs - enough to erase the impression that job growth had faltered, particularly in March.

The unemployment rate last month was 5.2%, unchanged from March but well below the 6.3% of nearly two years ago.

For the broad group of workers below management ranks, hourly wages were up 5 cents, to $16 an hour, and up 2.7% over the last year.  That was not enough to keep up with a 3.1% annual inflation rate, but the average number of hours worked in a week rose for the first time this year, and the increase in pay that resulted brought average weekly pay to $542, a rise of 3.3% in the last 12 months.

A slowdown in the growth of labor productivity contributed to the surge in hiring, economists said, as employers moved to keep up with demand for their goods and services by adding workers and hours.  

But for all the surge in hiring, there was evidence in April that the number of people hunting for jobs was greater than the demand for their services.

The average time that the unemployed spent in their search rose from 19.5 weeks in March to 19.6 weeks in April.

It would be better to see even faster growth so that the labor market would tighten up more quickly.  That is not likely to happen because the great majority of the unemployed are under the age of 45.  They dropped out of the labor force when job rolls were shrinking in the early years of the recovery and are now returning. They have come back because they are young and must work but we have a a couple of years of strong hiring before we are back and full employment and the labor market becomes tight again.

Job creation in April including:

Jobs lost included 6,000 in manufacturing.

The employment report was not the only news this week suggesting that the recent dip in the economy may be temporary.  While Ford and General Motors continued to lose ground to their competitors, overall auto sales rose in April despite high gasoline prices.

Overall, the biggest short-term risk is that oil prices are up.  But, according to one economist, job growth is brisk and that will feed into consumer spending.

4/6/05

BEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR JOBS IN 2005

Those searching for jobs in 2005 who were hoping for better news than 2004 have not had much to celebrate so far.  The unemployment rate at 5.2% is the lowest in more than three years but a big reason is the number of people who have simply given up looking is almost 20% higher than a year ago.

Corporate cutbacks continue as the latest merger boom does its downsizing thing.  And the number of new jobs created has dropped in recent months.

The broader economic outlook includes big government deficits, high fuel prices, and brutal competition from low-wage locales like China and India, none of which is good for jobs in the U.S. 

But for all that said, certain sectors of the job market are hot.  Areas where help will be most wanted include:

• Auditing - Thanks to the post-Enron Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which makes executives sign off on financial statements, more and more number crunchers are joining corporate payrolls.  Few are more sought out than internal auditors whose starting salaries are up about 10% over a year ago.
• Corporate Law - Sarbanes-Oxley and merger mania are fueling demand here too.  Lawyers who specialize in securities and corporate transactions are getting signing bonuses for the first time since the dotcom days.
• Construction - Continuing low interest and firing the home-building industry, but a commercial building boom is further igniting competition for architects, engineers, and contractors.  Most of the action is in hospitals and health care facilities, colleges and universities, and high-end hotels both in the U.S. and overseas.
• Health Care - As the nation's 76 million baby boomers age, the number of health care jobs grows.  Nearly one million will be added in the next three years, predicts Global Insight.  Most in demand are nurses, pharmacists, and physical therapists.

4/2/05

JOB GROWTH WEAKER THAN EXPECTED IN MARCH

The unemployment rate dipped slightly in March, the government said on Friday, but job creation was weaker than most analysts had expected.

Only 110,00 new jobs were added last month, about half the number that Wall Street analysts had predicted, and the unemployment rate declined to 5.2% from 5.4% in February.

The pace of job creation was much slower in February, when the economy added 243,000 jobs, and it was the smallest increase in employment since last July.

Over all, the Labor Department report suggested a continuation of the unusually slow job recovery that has been under way over the last two years.

The United States lost about 2.7 million jobs during and after the recession of 2001, and employment had recovered in fits and starts in the last two years.  About 3.1 million jobs have been added since May 2003, and the unemployment rate has declined from a high of 6.3%.

But wages have not kept up with inflation, suggesting that workers still have little bargaining power even as corporate profits have soared.

Hourly wages and average weekly earnings climbed 2.6% over the last year, while consumer prices climbed 3%.

New claims for unemployment insurance have climbed for the last three weeks, after trending downward for months, and hit 350,000 last week.  Economists say fewer than 400,000 claims a week are an indicator of rising employment, but the recent uptick has raised doubts about the strength of job creation.

• The biggest job losses were in:

  - Retail - 10,000 jobs
  - Manufacturing - 8,000 jobs

• Factory employment, where most of the recent job losses have occurred, remains stagnant.  Manufacturers have restored only a small fraction of the jobs they shed from 2001 through 2003.

• The biggest job gains came in construction and service industries: 

  - Business and professional services - 27,000 jobs
  - Education and healthcare -  23,000 jobs

The latest payroll figure was particularly disappointing after the robust growth in February, when employers added 243,000 jobs.  In the economic expansion of the late 1990s, the economy regularly added 250,000 to 300,000 jobs a month and sometimes far more.

Rising gasoline prices weakened consumer spending last summer, though economic growth continued to be strong throughout 2004, and some forecasters worry about a slowdown this summer.

Robert J. Barbera, chief economist at Hoenig / ITG, said companies were investing more of their money and earning more profits outside the United States.  He said, "what we are seeing is very strong profit growth, but pedestrian gains for investment and employment."  The reason, he said is American direct investment overseas is much higher than foreign direct investment in the United States.  Many consumer demands are being met by imports from foreign manufacturers.

3/29/05

JOB GROWTH BOOM OR BLIP?

Economists are looking to the March employment report, due Friday morning, to decide if an improving labor market is a trend they can bank on.

They are optimistic, expecting that 220,000 jobs were added and that the unemployment rate edged down to 5.3% from 5.4% in February.

That payroll gain would be down from the 262,000 jobs added in February, but would mark back-to-back months with gains of more than 200,000.  That's a feat not accomplished since companies added nearly a million jobs during the three-month period from March to May of 2004.

Though the labor market has not kept pace with gains in the overall economy, economists point to a number of signs of a strong March report and beyond.

"There are a lot of good factors out there," said Anthony Chan, senior economist with JP Morgan Fleming Asset Management.  He likes that the newly released mass layoff report from the Labor Department is below its 12-month moving average.

Others note the low numbers of initial jobless claims for the four weeks measured by the March report.  And private surveys, from temporary staffer Manpower and online job search firm Monster Inc. show strength.

"In general labor demand surveys are pointing to above trend gains," said Stephen Wieting, senior economist at Citigroup, which is projecting a 250,000 job gain in March.

And many think Labor Department's report understates actual gains in the economy by not accurately counting the self-employed or additions at smaller companies.

Even the economists who are pessimistic are getting less so.  Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research, is forecasting only 165,000 new jobs in the March report.  That's below consensus, but higher than his forecasts for recent months.

Still, Yamarone cautions against getting too excited.

"I don't think 262,000 gain we saw in February is sustainable," he said.  "We're facing higher commodity and raw material costs, higher interest rates, and slowing economic growth.  Given all of that, I don't see why anyone would click on the hiring switch."

The rise of initial jobless claims being filed the past two weeks could be an early warning sign that the April employment gains could be weaker, regardless of what happens in the March report.  Those two weeks of jobless claims will go into calculating the April payoff number."

"Companies are hiring, but they're only hiring in a kicking and screaming mode," said Chan.  "They explore all other options before they agree to add staff."

Either way, there might be too much emphasis being placed on monthly payroll number by investors.  It's also worth noting that the payroll number has fallen short of the consensus forecast in seven of the past nine months.

"Wieting said the report is becoming a less useful measure of the economic activity than in the past, although it is watched closely by investors who are looking for clues about the future pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

"It's become very much a traders' type of report, but not as much one for economists to get a lot of traction from," Wieting said.  

2/09/05

JOBS STILL CAN'T GET GOING!

The job market started 2005 in much the same way that it ended 2004 - posting disappointing job growth.  The Labor Department reported that there were 146,000 new jobs in January - below the 200,000 new jobs economists were expecting.

January marked the seventh time in the last eight months that economists had overestimated the number of jobs the economy created.

"Some of the signals pointing to job market improvement simply did not bear fruit this month," said Robert Brusca of FAQ-Economics, who had forecast a gain of 225,000 jobs.  "The report makes the economy look even less like it is building a head of steam."

The unemployment rate fell to 5.2% from 5.4% in December, but that came mostly from a drop in the size of the labor force, not due to strong employment gains. 

Mark Vitner, an economist from Wachovia Securities said, "if the Bureau of Labor Statistics report is correct, it is likely a sign of the impact of higher energy prices on businesses' expansion plans, coupled with the continued caution that has been exhibited by employers since the recession ended in November 2001. The lack of strong employment growth is one more reason for businesses to be cautious and can be a self-fulfilling prophecy."

Workers wages again grew below the pace of inflation.  The seasonally adjusted average hourly wage rose 3 cents, or 0.2%, to $15.88 an hour.

Job Losses in January

• Manufacturing - 25,000 
• Construction - 9,000

Job Gains in January

• Education and Health Services - 35,000
• Retail - 19,000

1/09/05 

LABOR DEPARTMENT REPORTS ON EMPLOYMENT IN DECEMBER AND 2004

Employment climbed at a steady if not spectacular pace in December, suggesting the economy is on a solid footing but that employers in many industries are still cautious about hiring.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the United States added 157,000 jobs in December and about 2.2 million jobs for all of last year - a good annual gain and the best since 1999 when 3 million jobs were added.  The figure means the economy had edged close to the number of jobs that existed before the 2001 recession began.  But that job growth has lagged far behind the population, which has climbed by more than 10 million people since then.

However, it was not enough to make up for all the jobs lost earlier in President Bush's first term in office.

The increase in jobs, slightly lower than most economists had predicted, was roughly in line with the increase in the working-age population and left the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.4%.

According to the chief economist at Argus Research, Richard Yamarone, "This is a positive job creation, but it pales in comparison with what we have had in previous economic recoveries."

Service industries account for almost all the new job creation over the last year.  The Labor Department said that employment in:

• Business and professional services increased by 546,000 jobs in 2004.  
• Healthcare services climbed 342,000
• Retail sales decreased by 20,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis - probably prompted by weak sales after Thanksgiving and encroachment of the Internet on traditional stores

The weakest rebound in factory employment in any economic recovery on record in the United States occurred in manufacturing companies with 2 million jobs lost from 2000 to the end of 2003 and only 96,000 jobs added in 2004.

• There were almost no new manufacturing jobs for the 3rd consecutive month - almost all of the added jobs came at the beginning of 2004

Economists said the report, while somewhat disappointing, pointed to an economy that was continuing to grow.  Analysts, on average, are predicting that the economy will expand about 3.4% in 2005, slower than the 4% or more rate achieved in 2004 but still faster than typical.

According to Economy.com:

• There were just enough jobs to create just enough income to keep consumers spending and the economy moving forward
• Employers were still trying to squeeze their labor costs as much as possible.  The sluggish rise in wages for the second consecutive month suggested that workers had little bargaining power with employers and that demand for labor was lackluster. That is good news for profits but bad news for the average American
• Hourly wages rose only 0.1% in December and only 2.7% for the year
• Weekly wages rose slightly faster because workers put in more hours on average
• Both hourly and weekly pay lagged behind last year's inflation rate of 3.5%

12/07/04

MORE MARKETS SEE JOB GAINS

Las Vegas still the hottest market

The job market continues to pick up steam.  U.S. employment hit 131.9 million jobs as the third quarter of 2004 drew to a close.  The increase was 1.4% above the same period in 2003.

That growth rate was an improvement over the previous two quarterly checkpoints.  Employment had been up 1.1% at the end of the second quarter and 0.5% at the end of the first.

Another positive indicator has been uncovered by an American City Business Journals analysis of employment data compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  It shows that:

• 70% of America's 226 labor markets - 161, to be exact - have added jobs during the past year
• Sixty-one have suffered losses
• Four are unchanged
• Las Vegas remains the hottest market in percentage terms, expanding its job base 5.1% between September 2003 and September 2004
• New York City has added the largest raw number of jobs - 101,100

JOB GROWTH BY THE NUMBERS FROM SEPTEMBER 2003 - SEPTEMBER 2004

LARGEST GROWTH BY PERCENT

LARGEST GROWTH IN RAW NUMBERS

The data indicates the following findings in 13 different regions / sections throughout the U.S.

NEW ENGLAND

The economic recovery has been spotty across the six state section.  Burlington, Vermont is rebounding nicely, with employment up 2.5% during the past 12 months.  That makes Burlington the fastest-growing market in New England and one of the top 25 in the nation.

But there are some gloomy stories, too.  Hartford, Connecticut has lost 8,400 jobs in the past year, the worst raw decline anywhere outside of Michigan.  Boston has lost 1,700 jobs over the same span.

NEW YORK

New York is really two states.  The New York City market -- also know as downstate -- has added 101,100 jobs since the third quarter 2003.  That is the largest gain in raw numbers across the U.S.

But upstate is a different story.  Its eight markets have collectively added only 5.300 jobs.  Three of them, in fact, have lower employment that they did a year ago -- Buffalo, Elmira, and Rochester.

MIDDLE ATLANTIC

The overall numbers in the Middle Atlantic look strong.  Its 21 markets have picked up 118,400 jobs since September 2003, the largest gain by any of the nation's 13 sections.

But the total is heavily weighted by the economic boom in two markets.  Washington-Baltimore has tacked on 85,700 jobs, and the Philadelphia area has added 16,200.

The biggest drag on the sectional economy is Scranton, Pennsylvania, which has lost 2,600 jobs.

SOUTHEAST

Charleston, South Carolina, leads this section, which sweeps the Atlantic seaboard from Virginia to Georgia.  Charleston's employment base has expanded 2.9% during the past year, a growth rate that ranks 17th among the nation's 226 labor markets.

Other strong gainers are Raleigh (up 2.1%), Charlotte (up 1.9%), and Asheville (up 1.7%), all in North Carolina.  They added 32,000 jobs since the third quarter of last year.

FLORIDA

Florida continues to prosper, despite an inordinate share of weather-related woes.  Eight of its markets rank among the 50 with the fasted job-growth rates in the U.S.  

Topping the list is Fort Myers with an increase of 3.6%, the sixth best percentage nationally.  Miami, Orlando, and Tampa have posted the largest gains in raw numbers -- Miami is up 23,700 jobs since September 2003, while Orlando is up 19,600, and Tampa is up 14,100.

SOUTH CENTRAL

Virginia, Florida, and Texas are the prosperous endpoints of a triangle.  All three are among the nation's healthiest state, but seven states in the middle of that triangle are not doing nearly as well.

The 30 markets in this region, taken as a group, have added just 32,000 jobs during the past year.  Oklahoma City accounted for almost 30% of that gain by itself, adding 9,300 jobs.

Twelve of the section's markets have lost employment.  The worst case is New Orleans, down 5,500 in 12 months.

TEXAS

Five of Texas' smaller markets are among the nation's leaders in job growth -- Laredo, McAllen, San Angelo, Bryan, and Victoria.  All have enjoyed healthy year-to-year increases between 4.5% (Laredo) and 2.7% (Bryan and Victoria).

The paces are slower in larger cities, but the raw numbers are much more impressive.  Houston has added 27,200 jobs in the past year, while Dallas has gained 19,100, and San Antonio has added 9,800.

EASTERN GREAT LAKES

Times are harder in the Eastern Great Lakes than anywhere else in the U.S.  Its 27 markets have collectively lost 56,800 jobs since September 2003.  New England is the only other section to register a new loss, just 600 jobs.

The epicenter of decline is Detroit, which has seen 30,200 jobs slip away, easily the worst figure in the nation.  Other large drops have occurred in Lansing, Michigan (down 11,700), Saginaw, Michigan (down 7,800), and Indianapolis, Indiana (down 7,200).

WESTERN GREAT LAKES

This region is nothing special in national terms.  The 20 markets here have a job growth rate of only 0.6%.

Leading the way are five Wisconsin metros with gains of 2.2% or better, headed by Sheboygan at 3.5%.  Milwaukee and Minneapolis-St. Paul are the pacesetters in raw numbers, adding 21,500 and 11,100 jobs, respectively.

PLAINS

Waterloo, Iowa, has added 2,800 jobs in the past year -- an amazing number for a market with total employment of just 75,700.  Its growth rate of 3.8% is number 5 in U.S. standings.

St. Louis is another success story, picking up 38,100 jobs since the third quarter of 2003.  Only five markets across the nation have done better in absolute numbers.

Cedar Rapids, Iowa, on the other hand, is down 3.7%, the third worst decline in the U.S.

INTERIOR WEST

The economy is humming in the Interior West, where three markets have job-growth rates higher than 3% -- Provo, Utah; Casper, Wyoming; and Las Cruces, New Mexico.

Phoenix, Arizona, has added 38,900 jobs in the past year, the equivalent of 750 each week.  It is the sectional leader in raw numbers.  The runners-up are Salt Lake City, Utah (up 13,700), Provo, Utah (up 6,800), Albuquerque, New Mexico (up 6,600), and Tucson, Arizona (up 6,400)

FAR WEST

Las Vegas is number 1 in the Far West and in the nation with job growth at 5.1%.  Nevada's second labor market, Reno, is second sectionally and fourth nationally with job growth at 4.1%.  Their combined gain is 50,800 jobs in 12 months.

Seattle, Washington's rebound (up 32,100) has also been impressive.  But Portland, Oregon remains in the doldrums, adding only 300 jobs in the past year.

CALIFORNIA

California is a study in contrasts.  Santa Barbara's economy is healthy, as evidenced by its employment growth of 2.7%.  San Diego is also doing reasonably well at 1.5%.  And Los Angeles has picked up 48,600 jobs.

But there are downsides, too.  The San Francisco Bay area is starting to recover, but still has a long way to go.  It is up just 3,400 jobs in the past year.  And the smaller markets of Modesto and Salinas have both lost more than 2,000 jobs since the third quarter of 2003.

11/17/04

JOB MARKET FOR CONSULTANTS IMPROVES

The improvement in the economy is increasing the demand for consultants.  Consultants and recruiters agree that what seems to be happening is that companies struggling back to financial health after suffering the double blow of the recession and corporate cutbacks in the early part of the decade are eager to seek out the services of consultants to position themselves to compete better, to streamline their business operations and boost their profitability, and to understand and address the increasingly complicated regulatory arena.

Twenty-seven percent of consulting firms plan to increase their net headcount by more than 10% this year  Over the past 4 quarters, the percentage of companies planning to hire that aggressively had never toped 11%.

The number one area for recruiting remains consultants with expertise in regulatory affairs, particularly Sarbanes-Oxley.  Companies are still struggling to fully comply with these new corporate-governance rules, and consultants are in demand both to advise on how to comply, and to provide more specific guidance on everything from audit and compensation policies to broad strategy.

Regional accounting firms see constraints placed on the Big Four accounting / consulting firms and are eager push into this area.  

Risk-management consulting is booming alongside audit, compensation, and other more traditional compliance related fields.

Not surprisingly, the small size of the talent pool with regulatory and risk management consulting skills coupled with the feverish demand from consulting firms, has driven salaries for specialists sharply higher.  While consulting firms generally have kept a lid on their billing rates and starting salaries, experienced regulatory and risk-management talent still command a premium salary.  One mortgage-related consulting professional earned a base salary of $300K plus a bonus tied to the health of the consulting firm.  A Minnesota-based consulting firm that advises on risk management, technology, strategy, and operational issues pays similar total compensation packages to those scarce individuals - it is the law of supply and demand.

Some risk-management consultants prefer to remain independent contractors, working with different consulting firms but remaining their own employers.

Recruiters also note a strong demand for consultants with a proven track record of advising companies on specific business issues, ranging from improving the supply chain to making decisions about outsourcing business functions.

According to Bob Sullivan, head of recruiting at Korn/Ferry's Boston office, "A couple of years ago, the role of the consulting company was to help their client grow and get to the next level.  Now, they still want to grow, but they also want to become more efficient, so there is an emphasis on transformation and specifics."

This shift from strategic to operational consulting has increased the demand for marketing expertise - hiring experienced marketing executives and consultants to advise on clients on improving their marketing and boosting top-line sales.

11/14/04

NEW GRADUATE DEGREES MOST IN DEMAND

A survey conducted by the National Association of Colleges and Employers indicated that the job outlook for new graduates is brighter than last year.  When asked which new college grads they were likely to hire, the greatest number of employers said they were interested in hiring those with majors in:

• Accounting 
• Electrical Engineering
• Mechanical Engineering
• Business Administration / Management
• Economics / Finance
• Computer Science
• Computer Engineering
• Marketing / Marketing Management
• Chemical Engineering
• Information Sciences and Systems

11/05/04

JOB GROWTH HIGHER IN OCTOBER - BUT WILL IT CONTINUE

U.S. employers increased increased hiring in October at the fastest pace in 7 months, the Labor Department said Friday in a report that showed considerably stronger economic growth than previously believed.  Employers added 337,000 jobs in October and figures for the past 2 months were revised upward, suggesting the economy has moved well beyond the summer's "soft patch" and retailers could enjoy a healthy Christmas sales season.

The unemployment rate rose to 5.5% from 5.4% but economists view this as a sign that more people who had given up are again looking for jobs.

The economy now has added more than 2 million jobs over the past year, the strongest pace since the end of the 1999-2000 boom, when employers added more than 3 million workers to their payrolls.  Equally important, the economy has added an average 225,000 jobs a month over the past 3 months, a healthy pace that should boost business and consumer confidence.

Some analysts were skeptical about the latest surge of hiring, pointing out that much of the unusually large jump in October stemmed from cleanup and rebuilding in Florida and other states that were ravaged by 4 hurricanes in August and September.  "While we are encouraged by the latest spurt, (we) seriously question its sustainability," said Rich Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research.  "We believe that pace of non-farm payroll jobs will probably revert back to 125,000 to 150,000 a month range in coming months."

Anthony Chan, senior economist for J.P. Morgan Fleming Asset Management indicated that slower employment gains are ahead in coming months.  He pointed out that the average work week stayed steady at 33.8 hours and that number normally climbs before a sustained period of increased hiring.  "Without an increase (in hours), it is hard to believe that employers are dying to hire 300,000-plus new workers each month," he said.

Wage growth was tepid.  Average pay rose 5 cents to $15.83 an hour, leaving wages up 2.6% over the last 12 months, roughly in line with inflation, up 2.5% annually in the most recent reading.

Sectors showing the highest growth included:

• Construction - 71,000 jobs
• Professional and Business Services - 97,000 jobs
• Retailers - 21,000

The sector with the greatest loss in jobs was manufacturing with 5,000 losses.  The job loss in manufacturing is troubling and could accelerate if the dollar stars to regain some of the strength is lost during the last 4 years, said Dean Baker, a co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research.  

Mr. Baker also expressed doubt that construction employment can stay strong in the face of rising interest rates.  So he also sees a strong chance of a return to weak labor reports relatively soon.

"The two big sources of uncertainty are the dollar and the housing market, and I think they are really going to throw the economy for a loop.  The question is when."

10/08/04

SEPTEMBER JOB GROWTH WEAKER THAN EXPECTED

Companies added 96,000 jobs when economists had forecast an increase of 150,000 jobs in September, according to a report by the Labor Department.  Though 1.8 million jobs have been added since August 2003, there are about 800,000 fewer jobs --- overall --- than when President Bush took office in January 2001 making him the first president since Herbert Hoover in the 1930s to see a decline in employment.

The jobs report showed :

• 37,000 net new jobs in government hiring
• 34,000 new jobs in professional and business services
• 26,000 new jobs in financial services
• 13,000 new jobs in leisure and hospitality
• 4,000 new jobs in construction

• 18,000 jobs lost in manufacturing

The impact of the hurricanes on national employment was probably slight.  The storms affected companies and workers unable to operate in the aftermath, but other employers added jobs to respond to the devastation.

The national unemployment rate remains at 5.4%.

STATE BY STATE UNEMPLOYMENT

The state figures below are for August and were released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on September 17th.  State figures for September are due October 22.

10/06/04

SEPTEMBER JOB CUTS HIGHEST IN 8 MONTHS

U.S. planned job cuts soared to an 8-month high in September while new hiring rose only slightly.  

Employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said employers announced 107,863 layoffs in September:

• 41% more than in September 2003
• 45% more than in August 2004
• The largest figure since January 2004, when 117,556 workers were laid off

The September figure brings third-quarter job losses to 251,585 - 19.9% more than the 209,895 registered in the second-quarter and 4% more than the 241,548 for the third-quarter of 2003.

The hardest hit industries in September were:

• Computer
• Transportation
• Telecommunications 
• Consumer Products

Adding to the discouraging jobs picture was the slow pace of new hiring in September.  Employer hiring announcements revealed only 16,166 new job openings in that month compared with 132,105 in August.

9/23/04

JOBS ADDED AND LOST

Thirty stated added jobs last month and 20 states lost jobs last month.  Some of the largest gains and losses occurred in battleground states that could determine the outcome of the presidential election.

The states that gained jobs include:

• Florida - 16,600
• Arizona - 10,200

Among the 17 politically pivotal states, 6 recorded job losses:

• Ohio - 11.800
• Missouri - 5,500
• Washington - 3,000
• Wisconsin - 1,100
• Oregon - 900
• New Hampshire - 500

The state-by-state job tallies underscored the spotty nature of the recovery.

Jobless rates include:

• Oregon - 7.4%
• Michigan - 6.7%
• Ohio - 6.3%
• Nevada - 4%
• New Hampshire - 3.7%

Although a majority of states - and the nation as a whole - have been adding jobs over the past year, employers are still paring payrolls in a handful of pivotal states.  Analysts said the job figures could make a difference at the presidential election, particularly with undecided voters in the Midwestern swing states that have been hit hard by the manufacturing downturn of recent years.

analysts said the job figures could make a difference at the margin, particularly with undecided voters in Midwestern swing states that had been hit particularly hard by the manufacturing downturn of recent years

In the past year, U.S. employers added 1.7 million jobs, nut the job count remains 913,000 below where it was when President Bush took office.

Chief economist Mark Zandi at Economy.com, a data analysis firm, said the figures reflect trends that have been at work for some time:

• Steady job creation in parts of the South and West
• Continuing losses in some Midwestern States

MORE ABOUT OHIO AND THE REST OF THE COUNTRY

Ohio lost 11,800 jobs in August, bringing its total job loss to 237,400.  Among the Ohio jobs lost were 4,100 manufacturing jobs.  Ohio has suffered more than one in four jobs lost in the United States.  According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Ohio has created an average of 1,500 jobs per month this year.  At this rate, it won't create its first net new job until 2017.

Manufacturing jobs have declined in 50 out of 51 states (and DC) during the last 4 years - America has lost 2.7 million manufacturing jobs.

Unemployment rates have increased in 47 out of 51 states (and DC).  The national unemployment rate has risen from 4.1% in January 2001 to 5.4% in August 2004.

Unemployment in specific Ohio cities:

• Cleveland, Ohio - 12.2%
• Canton, Ohio - 10.1%
• Akron, Ohio - 7.5%

.

9/11/04

INCREASE IN PLANS FOR LAYOFFS AND HIRING

Employers increased both hiring and layoff plans in August, according to a survey conducted by the outplacement Challenger, Gray and Christmas.  Employers announced plans to:

• Cut 74,150 jobs in the upcoming months - a 6.6% increase from July's announced layoffs, and the second highest monthly total since February. 
• Hire 132,105 in the weeks and months ahead; 83,450 from retailers.

Many of the planned retail jobs may disappear by February.

9/5/04

EMPLOYMENT INFORMATION FOR AUGUST

Employment rose by 144,000 in August.  Both the number of unemployed persons, 8.0 millions, and the unemployment rate, 5.4%, changed little from July to August.  Total employment held at 139.7 million in August.  The unemployment rated for major worker groups remained the same:

8/6/04

JOB GROWTH SLOWS DRAMATICALLY IN JULY - SMALLEST GAIN SINCE DECEMBER

Job growth slowed dramatically in July with a meager 32,000 jobs being added - a potentially troubling sign that the rough patch the economy hit in June was no aberration.

The unemployment rate, however, decreased to 5.5% from 5.6% in June.

Economists look more closely at job growth as a better barometer of the health of the jobs market.  The 32,000 net jobs added in July represented the smallest gain in hiring since December and followed a revised gain of just 78,000 in June, even less than previously reported.  May's payrolls also were revised down to 208,000.

Analysts were expecting the economy to add from 215,000 to 247,000 jobs in July.  They were predicting the jobless rate to hold at 5.6%.

8/4/04

NUMBER OF PLANNED JOB CUTS INCREASE IN JULY

The number of job cuts planned by U.S. employers increased in July, while hiring decreased for the second straight month:

• U.S. businesses announced an increase of 18%, 69,572 job cuts, up from 64,343 job cuts in June, according to the outplacement firm of Challenger, Gray & Christmas
• The number of new hires fell 30% from 38,377 in June to 26,880 in July 

"There may be more hiring going on than our numbers suggest, since hiring announcements are not as common as job-cut announcements.  However, the decline in hiring that we are seeing, combined with continued downsizing, indicates that the job market is still struggling to gain momentum."  

The level of employment in the nation is still 1.2 million jobs lower than it was in March 2001, when the slump began.

July labor market health indicators include:

• Consumer confidence survey - consumers believed jobs were somewhat easier to find
• Help Wanted Index - employment advertisements in newspapers fell
• Institute for Supply Management - purchasing managers said that factory hiring decreased slightly
• Manpower, the nations "2 employment firm - said employers still seemed cautious about hiring

The job-cut announcements that Challenger tracks include plans to let workers take early retirement.  Many of the announced job cuts do not take place in the month they are announced, but several months later.

8/1/04

SALARIES ARE LESS FOR WORKERS FINDING JOBS!

50% of those who lost jobs between 2001 and 2003 and have found new jobs are earning less!

From January 2001 through December 2003, 5.3 million workers were displaced from full or part-time jobs that they held for at least three years, according to a new report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Among those workers:

•  65% had found either full-time or part-time work by January 2004, when the survey was conducted.  
• 20% were still looking
• 15% were not in the labor force - they had not looked for work in the 4 weeks prior to the survey
• 57% were being paid less than previously
• 1/3 of those with new jobs were being paid at least 20% less

6/24/04

THIRD QUARTER HIRING PLANS TO KEEP PACE WITH SECOND QUARTER

According to a recent Manpower Survey of 16,000 employers nationwide, 30 percent of companies said they plan to increase total employment in the third quarter, 6 percent said they would decrease it, and 59 percent predicted no change:

• Service industries and wholesale and retail trade sector expected the greatest growth
• Public administration and education predicted the smallest growth
• Hiring prospects in education show the greatest improvement compared with the second quarter.
• The West is the only part of the country expected to increase hiring overall; the other three regions are expected to hire at the same pace.

In the West the greatest hiring is planned in::

• Durable Goods Manufacturing (28%)
• Mining (27%)
• Wholesale and Retail Trade (26%).

In the South, hiring is predicted to increase in:

• Construction (29%) 
• Services (25%)
• Wholesale and Retail Trade (24%).

In the Northeast, the greatest number of employers anticipating more hires are in:

• Education (21%)
• Durable Goods Manufacturing (21% - the most optimistic projection in 3 years)
• Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (19%)
• Services (19%)
• Wholesale and Retail Trade (19%)

In the Midwest, the largest percentage of employers planning a hiring boost are in:

• Non-Durable-Goods Manufacturing (21%)
• Construction (20%)
• Transportation and Public Utilities (20%)
• Wholesale and Retail Trade (20%)

WHAT THE NUMBERS DON'T SHOW

The Manpower survey does not:

• Measure the actual number of jobs for which employers plan to hire.  So, theoretically, even if more employers in one sector - for example, services - plan to increase hiring than employers in another sector - say, education - that doesn't necessarily mean there will be more job openings in services than education
• Reflect whether the hiring will be for permanent or temporary positions
• Identify of the positions are newly created or simply jobs that were left unfilled due to layoffs and attrition

Nevertheless, the hiring outlook provides one measure of employment health in a given field.

6/21/04

IMMIGRANTS ARE FILLING 3 OUT OF EVERY 10 NEW JOBS

A recent report by the nonpartisan Pew Hispanic Center found that workers who were not U.S. citizens claimed 378,496 jobs out of a net increase of 1.3 million from the first three months of 2003 through the first 3 months of 2004.  This indicates that immigrants are filling nearly 3 out of every 10 new jobs in the rebounding economy, a development that may dilute the political dividend to President Bush from an election-year recovery.  

The share of jobs going to noncitizens - 28.5% - was particularly notable because workers who were not U.S. citizens accounted for fewer than 9% of all those holding jobs in the United States.  

The study is likely to sharpen the debate about the:

• Role of immigrant workers in the United States
• Quality of new jobs
• Impact of globalization

The high proportion of new jobs going to nonvoting immigrants may reflect the fact that the current recovery has thus far been different from most past upturns.  In recent months, as overall job growth has begun to improve, most of the new jobs appear to have come in categories that require relatively low skills and pay relatively low wages - the kinds of jobs for which immigrants are relatively strong competitors.

The median weekly earnings for Latinos dropped from $402 in the first quarter of 2003 to $395 during the same period in 2004, after adjusting for inflation.  

6/07/04

U.S. ADDED 248,000 JOBS IN MAY

 The United States added almost a quarter million jobs in May, extending a nine-month hiring spree and holding the unemployment rate at 5.6%.  In the last 3 months, payrolls have increased by almost 1 million.  The employment rate is far from the booming 1990s.  The number of unemployed persons was essentially unchanged at 8.2 million.  Total employment was 138.8 million in May.  The unemployment rate for the major worker groups were:

ü      Adult men – 5.2%

ü      Adult women – 4.8%

ü      Teenagers – 17.2%

ü      Whites – 5.0%

ü      Blacks – 9.9%

ü      Hispanics and Latinos – 7%

ü      Asians – 4.2%      

In May of 2004 as in May of 2003:

ü      1.5 million persons wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months and were not counted because they had not looked for work in the preceding 4 weeks

ü      476,000 discouraged workers were not currently looking for work specifically because they believed no jobs were available for them

ü      The other 1.1 million had not searched for work for reasons such as school and family responsibilities 

But because tens of thousands of jobless are renewing their search for work in the wake of the improving labor market, the overall, seasonally adjusted civilian unemployment rate did not improve from April’s 5.6%. 

Hiring last month was widespread. Industries posting the gains were:

ü      Construction – 37,000 jobs – most in specialty trade construction and construction of buildings

ü      Healthcare – 36,000 jobs – hospitals and ambulatory care services accounted for 2/3 of the gain

ü      Professional and Business Services – 64,000 jobs fueled by hiring increases in temporary employment firms

ü      Hotels and Restaurants – 33,000 jobs – since January, food services jobs have increased by an average of 32,000 a month, more than double the average monthly increase in 2003

ü      Manufacturing – 32,000 jobs – most in durable goods – construction related manufacturing industries, including fabricated metal, wood, and nonmetallic mineral products – computer and electronic products

ü      Financial Services – 15,000 jobs – reflecting a continued increase in real estate and credit intermediation

ü      Retail – 142,000 jobs since January – in May, increases in building material and garden supply stores, food and beverage stores, and clothing stores 

Industries posting losses were:

ü      Government – 27,000 jobs

ü      Telecommunications – 5,000 jobs since its peak in March 2001, 283,000 jobs, a fifth of its total, have been lost 

Even with these strides, President Bush is still on track to be the first president since the Great Depression to have lost jobs during his watch. 

The average duration of unemployment rose to 20 weeks last month, up from 19.7 weeks in April.  Almost 22% of all jobless workers have been without work for 27 weeks or more.

6/07/04

WOMEN MAKE LESS IN BEST-PAID JOBS

Over the last several years, more women than ever have been climbing to the top wage earning jobs.  But a U.S. Census report indicated women are not making as much as men when they get there.

The national report, whcih breaks down earnings for men and women by occupation, show the greater pay gap tends to be widest in positions where the income potential is highest, such as physiciansm dentists, and financial managers.  Nationally, women earn 74 cents for every dollar earned by men in the same job category.  The report compares year-round, full-time workers who are 16 years of age or older.

Many higher paying occupations are jobs women have been entering more recently.  Women having less experience contributes to the wage gap in general.  Though discrimination has declined, it still continues to exist in the labor market.

TOP TEN OCCUPATIONS WITH THE LARGEST INCOME GENDER GAPS

5/28/04

ARE ANY JOBS SAFE FROM OUTSOURCING

According to an article on msnbc.com the ten jobs not likely to be outsourced are:

• Chief Executive
• Physician & Surgeon
• Pilot, Co-Pilot, & Flight Engineer
• Lawyer
• Computer, Information Systems Manager
• Sales Manager
• Pharmacist
• Chiropractor
• Physician's Assistant
• Education Administrator

There are many other jobs that, for obvious reasons, cannot be outsourced.  Police officers, firefighters, waiters, and plumbers would be in this category.

5/10/04

JOB CUTS 

MCI announced today that they will eliminate 7.500 jobs in the second quater -- about 15% of the work force -- as it cuts costs in it struggle with weak revenues that resulted from quarterly losses of $388 million.  

Winn-Dixie Stores Inc. plans to cut 10,000 jobs from its payroll by closing or selling 156 stores and 3 distribution centers and selling several manufacturing businesses in the next year.  The job cuts will reduce the work force by 10%.

Gateway Inc. is cutting another 1,500 jobs -- about 40% of its remaining work force, only one month after a similar cut after posting its 13th loss in 14 quarters.  The jobs will be eliminated by the end of 2004.  The layoffs will leave the computer seller with 2,000 employees, down from its peak of nearly 25,000 employees in 2000.  In April, the company shut all 188 of its stores.

5/07/04

JOBS INCREASE BY 288,000 IN APRIL

Employers added jobs at a surprisingly rapid pace for the second straight month in April and the unemployment rate decreased from 5.7% to 5.6%, according to a Labor Department.  These numbers are well above the forecasted 173,000 and the highest forecasts of 250,000.

Job growth in April included:

• Business & Professional Services - 123,000
• Retail - 23,000
• Manufacturing - 21,000
• Construction - 18,000

The March numbers were 337,000 jobs which gave the economy an average annual gain of 217,000 a month so far this year.  After the economy lost 2.7 million jobs from the start of 2001 until August 2003 -- well after the recession ended -- payrolls have now grown for eight straight months, adding 1.1 million jobs.

Gene Sperling, economic adviser to John Kerry, said that the strong April report did not make up for job losses earlier in the Bush administration.  "We're in a very deep hole on job market," Sperling said.  "We've had a couple of steps in the right direction, but we have a lot farther to dig ourselves out."

4/24/04

HIRING OUTLOOK IS BLEAK FOR BANKING PROFESSIONALS

According to an article on Careerjournal.com by Suzanne McGee, banking executives interested in finding new jobs in 2004 may finding the jobs are few and far between.  Thousands of bank employees are expected to lose jobs in coming months as large banks continue to merge for greater efficiencies.

Few hiring bright spots exist, and mostly for highly specialized banking professionals.  Demand is good for:

• Personal financial advisors who can help banks provide retail wealth management services
• Credit and risk-management executives to help banks manage credit risk and comply with government regulations
• Branch managers are also needed to help expanding banks run new branches.

About 12,500 employees will be eliminated in coming months following the merger of Bank of America Corporation and FleetBoston Financial Corporation this month.  This merger will create a $47 billion union and the third largest bank in the United States.

The Bank of America / Fleet merger is one of a host of mergers - large and small - that are transforming the industry and eliminating jobs.  Another 10,000 jobs are likely to be lost after the still-pending merger of J.P. Morgan Chase and Bank One Corporations.

STAYING PUT

As layoffs increase, few bankers are making voluntary job changes.  Instead, most are staying put and sometimes rejecting recruiters' overtures for fear a bank they join might merge in the near future and they will be jobless.  For Key Bank in Cleveland, Ohio, this has made it difficult to recruit employed executives at other institutions, says Zachary Simon, vice president of executive recruiting.

POCKETS OF STRENGTH

Despite current turmoil, by 2012, the Bureau of Labor Statistics expects the number of executive-level banking jobs - 445,000 in 2002 - will rise by 11.2%.  The greatest growth - nearly 30% - is expected to be in the personal financial advisory category, which includes professionals at financial-services firms such as Merrill Lynch and at private banks. Professionals with the following skills are being recruited:

• Insurance to financial planning and estate - and tax planning often enter at the vice president level.
• Structuring - and refinancing - residential mortgages 
• Advising small family-owned businesses in expansion or purchase of business real estate

COMPLIANCE AND RISK MANAGEMENT

A push is also on to hire compliance and risk management executives who keep reserves in line with lending and ensure that lending remains within prudent parameters. These professionals are relatively scarce.  Community bank chief executives surveyed by the American Bankers Association in February said the chief compliance officer is the most difficult job to fill, with 89% describing the task as "hard" or "very hard." 

PLEASING LOCAL CUSTOMERS

As giant banks consolidate, much of the job growth for banking executives of all kinds will likely be at smaller institutions.  This is particularly true as smaller banks concentrate on satisfying customers in their local communities, who were neglected in the late 1990s.  Now such businesses are prized clients.

The expansion of retail-banking networks also is creating new opportunities, according to Heather McElrath, a spokeswoman at the American Bankers Association.  US Bancorp is one example of an aggressively expanding bank.  It is rolling out 178 new branches at supermarkets across Utah, Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California.  The bank is filling regional and district manager posts internally, but is recruiting outside for some branch managers.  US Bancorp is also hunting for manager-level employees in technology areas to help back-office functions. 

4/10/04

JOBLESS CLAIMS HIT 3-YEAR LOW

Claims for unemployment fell by 14,000 to 328,000, lowest since January 13, 2001.

This reportedly may be a signal that the economy is turning around.  The unexpectedly large fall to 328,000 from 342,000 the prior week surprised analysts and led many to predict that a trend toward more hiring was in place, especially after last month's pickup in job creation.

4/10/04

HOW TO PREPARE FOR OUTSOURCING / OFFSHORING 

Many IT jobs are being outsourced to India.  If you fear that you job may be at risk to outsourcing, experts say that it would be wise to:

• Evaluate your current job against "offshoring" patterns.  It is wise to have knowledge of the global marketplace.

• Network with others in your industry to find out how your field is being affected by outsourcing / offshoring.

• Explore jobs that require customer interaction. 

• Avoid jobs with data-heavy duties such as fixing computer code which can be done anywhere.

• Look for opportunities in your company or another company created by offshoring, like managing or supporting overseas operations, editing technical writing, or helping to coordinate legal work sent back to a U.S. company.

• Explore new opportunities outside of your company.  The more repetitive jobs will go offshore but there are predicted entrepreneurial opportunities that will be created as a result of offshoring.  Think about how we use the technology to create a unique product in this marketplace.

• If there are rumors in your company about possible offshoring, first ask around informally and then approach your boss directly to see if such moves are coming.  Next, seek out any opening within your company and try to use your networks to get a new position.

• If you are worried about offshoring at all, it is probably best to have an updated polished résumé ready to go.

The above information was excerpted from a Wall Street Journal Online article by Kris Maher.

4/09/04

TAX DEDUCTIONS FOR JOB HUNTERS

Tax relief for job hunters may cover a range of job search, moving, education, child-care, and health care expenses.  Job-hunting expenses can only if they equal more than 2% of your adjusted gross income (and then only the expenses that exceed the 2%).  Items that should be tracked and recorded for deductions, include:

• Telephone Bills

• Travel Expenses

• Gas Mileage

• Meals

• Newspapers, Trade Journals

• A New Computer

• Résumés and Letters Sent

• Relocation expenses / moving costs if your job is at least 50 miles away from your old home than was your previous job - direct expenses include the cost of a moving van, gas mileage and tolls if you drive to your new location, and the cost of shipping a pet or even a boat.  Indirect expenses that would not be deductible include visits to your new town before you move (though these might fall under job-hunting expenses if you were still interviewing) or the loss on the sale of a house.

• Classes or training to improve your skills or make you more employable in your chosen profession. You can deduct up to $3,000 this year if your adjusted gross income does not exceed $65,000 ($130,000 if you are married and filing jointly).  It has to be training in your current line of work.

• Career changers can receive a lifetime-learning credit of 20% up to $10,000 in tuition per household.  If your annual income is more than $40,000 ($80,000 for joint filers), the credit starts to phase out and disappears completely for those with incomes above $50,000 ($100,000 for joint filers).

• If you collect unemployment insurance for at least 12 weeks you can use your IRA to pay health insurance premiums without facing early withdrawal penalties.  But you cannot withdraw more than the premiums would be.

• Save receipts for all healthcare related expenses, including car fare to and from doctors' appointments, weight-loss or smoking-cessation programs, and medical equipment.

• Healthcare bills have to add up to 7.5% of your adjusted gross income and you can only deduct expenses above that threshold.

• You might qualify for a child care tax credit which applies for children younger than 13 and covers from 20% to 35% of those costs up to $3,000  for one child, $6,000 for two or more, according to the IRS.  The maximum credit is 20% if your adjusted gross income is above $43,000.

Many of these items might benefit you more than usual in a year when your income is unusually low.

You cannot deduct expenses if you:

• Change Careers

• Have a too long a break in employment that the Internal Revenue Service doubts you have been looking for a job.

To show your efforts and progress in the job search process, it is useful to:

• Keep a written log or diary of your job search efforts and expenses

• Attend professional meetings

• Keep sending out résumés

• Exchange e-mails and phone calls with former colleagues

Note:  The above information should not be a substitute for the advice of an accountant.  Check with an accounting professional before taking any of the possible deductions described.

4/02/04

SORTING OUT THE MEANING OF THE RISE IN EMPLOYMENT AND THE RISE IN UNEMPLOYMENT

The U.S. Department of Labor reported an unexpected surge in employment - the fastest pace in nearly 4 years in March.  Payrolls outside of the farm sector grew by 308,000 in March, compared with a revised gain of 46,000 jobs in February.

The unemployment rate, which is generated by a separate survey, rose from 5.6% to 5.7% as more people came back into the job market.  Some of the people who had stopped looking for jobs began to search for jobs again.

Nearly 24% of jobless workers have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more -- a 20-year high --- a sign, they say, that the labor market still has a ways to go.

Temporary help payrolls, another leading indicator of where the job market is headed, fell for only the second time in the past 11 months.

While the economy adds jobs:

• Sun Microsystems Inc. plans to cut 3,300 jobs
• Gateway Inc is cutting 2,500 jobs and closing its 188 retail stores around the country

Changes occurring in March:

• Service industries such as education and health care added 230,000 jobs in March.
• Many of the added jobs were attributed to the ending of the grocery workers strike in California.
• Goods-producing industries added 78,000 jobs.
• 71,000 construction jobs (part of the goods-producing numbers) - helped by dry and mild weather across much of the country.
• Manufacturing payrolls were unchanged, after 43 months of declines.  Economists had hoped this would finally be the month factory jobs would grow, based on recent surveys showing a greater inclination to hire.
• Average hourly wages rose 2 cents to $15.54.
• Average weekly earnings slipped 88 cents to $523.70.
• Hourly wages have grown just 1.8% in the past year, near the lowest since 1986.
• The average workweek edged lower to 33.7 hours.
• The manufacturing workweek also declined.

3/22/04

WHAT OUTSOURCING AND OFFSHORING MEAN TO IBM EMPLOYEES

According to an article on careerjournal.com, in February, International Business Machines Corporation said it would add 5,000 workers in the U.S. this year to try to blunt criticism of its plans to move thousands of jobs abroad in 2004.

But a closer look at IBM's hiring and layoff practices shows it may actually wind up eliminating more U.S. jobs in the economy at large than it creates this year -- even while adding a little to its own payroll.

IBM's big business is outsourcing -- as used in this context, the practice of companies hiring IBM and others to take over their computer rooms, payroll departments, and other work.  Under such contracts, which have been common for years, IBM promises to reduce the client's cost of technology spending, or at least make it more predictable.  As part of these agreements, IBM usually hires the employees of the client company -- sometimes thousands of them -- who handle the work being transferred.  Such outsourcing now brings in about $15 billion a year for IBM, representing 17% of its revenue and much of its growth prospects.  

Only a small part of this kind of outsourcing typically results in jobs being exported to other countries -- a trend known as "offshoring."  But it does result in another kind of job loss.  Often, IBM ends up laying off some of the workers it hires from outsourcing clients as it makes the acquired operations more efficient.  Meanwhile, the workers from the client companies who remain on the IBM payroll often suffer cuts in pay and benefits.

In a further step, some of these jobs are moving abroad.  "What's pushed the outsourcing to offshoring is:

• Growth of [technical skills] in India 
• Cheap, fast communications 

The result is "a significant shortfall of jobs creation" in the U.S.

IBM won't say how many workers it has hired under outsourcing agreements, how many of them it laid off, or how many of their jobs were moved offshore.  But the company acknowledges that job guarantees for such employees are relatively brief.  Consultants say usually no more than one year.

Numbers of employees for IBM include:

• 5,000 announced new jobs in 2004 
• 2,000 U.S. jobs
• 3,000 U.S. jobs moved offshore in 2004
• U.S. work force growth from 141,000 in 2003 to 143,000 in 2004
• Worldwide employment will rise 15,000 this year to 330,000

If IBM adds 2,000 net U.S. jobs this year, how could its activities result in fewer domestic jobs in the economy at large?  A few of its outsourcing agreements help to explain this phenomenon.  As part of its outsourcing agreements it hired 7,450 workers, including:

• 4,000 computer professionals from J.P. Morgan Chase
• 250 computer professionals from construction giant Fluor Corp.
• 300 from ING Groep NV's U.S. Financial Services unit
• 600 U.S. workers from Qwest Communications International Inc.
• Separately it added 2,300 U.S. workers through acquisition of Rational Software Inc.

But at the end of 2003, IBM's employment was up just 2,000, about what it expects to add this year.  Where did the rest of the jobs go?  Ex-IBM workers and analysts cite job cuts from previous outsourcing deals, including moving some of these jobs offshore.

3/9/04

LYING ON RESUMES - DON'T DO IT!

Lying on résumés and going to extremes to support those lies is becoming more prevalent, according to an article posted on MSNBC.com. Some dishonest job seekers are resorting to complex, sometimes high-tech means to support those lies, including providing employers with toll-free numbers, which are answered by operators of Web sites that not only offer phony academic degrees, but also "verify" a job seeker's education.

In an effort to put more credibility into embellishing their résumé, some candidates are paying hackers to plug their names into a class list database of a university they claim they have attended.  If you resort to these extremes you can be: 

• Charged with a felony for hacking into a university's database, according to criminal lawyers.
• Accused of criminal fraud by an employer if a false degree leads to your employment at higher pay 

While the uncertain employment market is pushing job hunters to such convoluted extremes, inadequate security for database systems and a long list of Web sites offering fake degrees only serve to facilitate résumé fraud.

The background search firm, ADP Screening and Selection Services, in a 2003 study, found that more than 50% of the people on whom it conducted employment and education checks had submitted false information, compared with about 40% in 2002.  This has prompted increasing numbers of companies to do more than background checks on candidates.

A 2003 survey of more than 200 companies by Virginia-based Society of Human Resource Management revealed that 80% of them made reference and criminal checks on their employees.

Still, some applicants continue to get smarter and slicker at defrauding employers and are crossing legal limits to snatch jobs from equally qualified honest candidates.

Note:

If you are hired and have lied on your résumé you will probably be terminated immediately and may be prosecuted, even if you have performed outstandingly in the position for many years.  Never, never, never lie on your résumé.  It may come back to haunt you.

3/5/04

JOBS GROWTH IS DISAPPOINTING - REMAINS WEAK

U.S. employers added only 21,000 positions in February while unemployment remained at 5.6%.  The figures dramatized the relative scarcity of new jobs.

The latest data released by the Labor Department Friday depicted the painfully slow job growth the country has been enduring.  The net gain in February fell well short of the 125,000 jobs that economists had been forecasting.

"Employers are still very, very cautious about adding bodies," according to chief economist at John Hancock, Bill Cheney.  "If you are out there looking for a job, this is bad news," he said.

Moreover, the job gains in January were revised to show a pickup of just 97,000 positions, down from 112,000 first estimated a month ago.  Nevertheless, the overall seasonally adjusted unemployment rate stayed at 5.6 percent in February as thousands of prospective workers gave up looking for a job.  Approximately 392,000 people left the civilian work force in February from January.

The economy, after struggling mightily to get back on its feet after being knocked down in 2001, finally staged a material rebound in the second half of 2003.  But for out-of-work Americans, it hasn't felt like better economic times.

There were some 8.2 million people unemployed in February, with the average duration of 20.3 weeks without work.  That marked the highest duration of joblessness in over 20 years.

The findings for February include:

LOSSES

• Manufacturers lost jobs for the 43rd month in a row.  Factories cut 3,000 positions but that marked a slower pace than the 13,000 cut in January
• Construction companies lost 24,000 jobs as bad winter weather in some parts of the country delayed projects.  
• Leisure and hospitality firms cut 9,000 jobs

GAINS

• Retailers added 13,000 jobs
• Temporary help firms added 32,000  
• Education and health-care services gained 13,000 jobs.

Analysts want to see the economy generate around 200,000 to 300,000 net jobs a month on a consistent basis before they declare a recovery in the fragile labor market.

3/4/04

JOBLESS CLAIMS SLIGHTLY LOWER LAST WEEK

The Labor Department said 345,000 people filed new claims for state unemployment benefits in the week ended February 28, 2004, compared with a revised 352,000 the prior week.

Economists, on average, expected 345,000 new claims according to Briefing.com.

The four-week moving average of new claims, which irons out the volatility of the weekly data, slipped to 352,250 from a revised 355,250 the prior week.

Continued claims, the number of people out of work for a week or more, held steady at 3.1 million in the week ended February 21, the latest data available.

On Wall Street, stock market futures were little changed after the report, pointing to a positive open.

Though it usually takes a while for unemployment to fall once the economy has started growing again -- since employers are hesitant to start hiring until they believe the recovery is for real -- the United States has enjoyed nine straight quarters of growth, including the strongest performance in 20 years in the third quarter of 2003, without significant job creation.

In fact, since March 2001, when the 2001 recession began, more than 2.3 million payroll jobs have been lost, according to the Labor Department, making this recession / recovery period the most "jobless" since World War II.

Several indicators have been pointing up for the job market, including a steady, if slow, decline in weekly jobless claims, leading many economists to forecast greater job growth this year.

But some economists worry that structural changes in the job market, including technological advances and a growing appetite for cheap offshore labor, will keep hiring muted in 2004.

On Friday, the Labor Department reports on February unemployment and non-farm payroll growth.  Economists, on average, believe unemployment held at 5.6 percent and that 125,000 new payroll jobs were created in February, according to Briefing.com.

3/4/04

JOB BOOM STILL A HOPE, NOT A FACT

There are few signs that the job market was much different in February than it was in January, when it was recovering, but far from full strength.

On Friday, the Labor Department is scheduled to release its figures for February unemployment and non-farm payrolls growth.  Economists, on average, expect that unemployment held steady at 5.6 percent and that payrolls grew by 125,000 jobs, according to Briefing.com.

Such job growth would be nothing to sneeze at.  But the labor force grows by about 150,000 people a month, meaning, even if economists' forecasts are accurate -- no sure thing, of course -- there would still be about 25,000 more people looking for work.

Twenty-seven months after the end of the last recession, payrolls are still 2.35 million jobs below where they were when the recession began, in March 2001, making this the longest job slump since the Labor Department started keeping track in 1939.

Technology-driven productivity gains have kept businesses from hiring in greater numbers, despite a robust economy in the second half of 2003.

But growth in productivity, a measure of output per worker hour, slowed in the fourth quarter, and past gains have helped businesses dramatically improve profits, which usually gives them a healthier appetite for new workers.

"Whether it's this month or the next handful of months, we see the combination of sustained productivity gains, profit growth, and healthy increases in product demand leading businesses to want to re-hire," said Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America.

But many economists doubt that rehiring was robust in February, saying the standard job market indicators were not that different in February than they were in January, when just 112,000 new jobs were added.

For one thing, the number of new jobless claims during the week when the Labor Department takes its survey of households (to generate the unemployment figure) and businesses (to generate the payroll figure) was almost exactly the same in each month, as was the number of continuing claims -- people drawing benefits for more than one week.

The Fed's 'Beige Book' report of national economic activity in January and February said hiring grew "slowly" in each month and that employers were hit with "substantial increases" in health-care costs, another factor keeping firms reluctant to hire.

More ominously, several measures of consumer confidence worsened in February.  The most reliable of those measures, the one compiled by the Conference Board, a private research firm, posted one of its biggest drops in history during the month, with a high percentage of consumers saying jobs were "hard to get."

"Confidence declines of this magnitude typically happen around 'shocks' or 'events," David Rosenberg, chief economist at Merrill Lynch, wrote in a recent research note.  "We don't really know what the 'shock' was this time around, but maybe we will find out when the non-farm (payroll report) is released on Friday."

Surveys of business leaders and purchasing managers have improved which are typically considered good signs of future job growth.  Most notably, the employment indices in Institute for Supply Management's monthly surveys of manufacturing and service-sector business activity have shown signs of job growth for several months.

But economists are divided about how much weight to give those measures, which show only the number of firms that are hiring, not how many people are being hired.  If every firm in the ISM survey is hiring just a handful of workers, then the employment indices will look strong, but the total impact on payrolls may be minimal.

"The ISM reports are honestly not the best way to go about forecasting the payroll report," said Drew Matus, senior economist with Lehman Brothers.

Still other surveys, including the Business Roundtable CEO survey and the National Federation of Independent Business small-business-owner survey, also show an increasing appetite for new workers.

But those seem to contradict the anecdotal evidence compiled by Matus and some other economists.

Richard Yamarone, director of economic research at Argus Research in New York, said he has listened to 207 firms' earnings conference calls for the latest quarter and hasn't heard much to get excited about.  For that reason, he expects payroll growth of just 45,000 in February, with a risk that the number could be even lower.  "I still don't think that the tone has changed," Yamarone said.  "I don't hear any hiring going on, and I don't hear any firings going on."

Of course, it's important to remember that economists have a done a lousy job in predicting job growth lately; the consensus forecast for payroll growth has been overly optimistic in 9 out of the past 14 months.

The fact that so many economists are pessimistic about February growth could mean that they will all be wrong on the downside on Friday -- or some other month in the future.

"It remains rational to expect job gains of over 200,000 per month in the upcoming months," said Anthony Crescenzi, bond market strategist at Miller Tabak & Co.  "The longer it takes to reach that point the more likely it is that the forecasters will continue to skedaddle and lower their forecasts still further." 

2/18/04

BUSH CHANGES HIS PREDICTION FOR JOB-GROWTH

President Bush backed away from his earlier prediction that the United States economy will add 2.6 million new jobs by the end of this year.  His hopes for the elections in November rest largely on his promises of an economic rebound.  While broader measures of the economy have improved in the past couple of years, few of the more than 2.1 million jobs lost during Bush's time in office have been added back to payrolls, giving him the worst record of job creation of any president since Herbert Hoover.

With so much on the line, there has been disagreement within the administration about the proper message to take on jobs recovery.  Neither Commerce Secretary Don Evans nor Treasury Secretary John Snow ever endorsed the prediction of 2.6 million jobs, White House sources said.

By late Wednesday, even Gregory Mankiw, chairman of Bush's economic council and an author of the jobs forecast, had retrenched on his own predictions.  "... "We still expect 2004 to be a robust year.  We still expect jobs to be created.  But we have not put out a quantitative projection since December 2,"  the day on which his projections were based.

2/14/04

JOB GROWTH FORECASTS

Despite plenty of the signs of job recovery in the United States economy over the last 2 years, the job market has remained a sore spot with its slow growth and the trend toward outsourcing jobs to India, China, and Taiwan.

According to the 10-year job forecast published this week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, service industries have the brightest future, although it cannot be said that many of the positions with the greatest prospects are high paying.

The greatest growth in employment between 2002 and 2012 is predicted to be in the:

• Service sector, particularly in education and health services 
• Professional services
• Business Services

Overall the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects the economy will add another 21.3 million jobs by 2012, a 15% increase.

•  Job growth in the education, healthcare, professional, and business service industries is expected to exceed 30%.  
• Other service industries projected to have a higher than average job growth include the information, transportation and warehousing, and leisure and hospitality industries.
• The only goods-producing sector expected to experience jobs growth is construction, with a projected growth rate of 15.1%.

Manufacturing jobs overall are expected to decline by 1%.  But the decline between 1992 and 2002 was 8.9%.  The areas expected to be hardest hit are apparel, textiles mills, and computer and electronic products manufacturing.

The decline in agricultural jobs is expected to accelerate slightly, falling 15.1% compared with 14.9% between 1992 and 2002.  

The top 10 occupations with the largest expected employment growth include:

The occupations with the fastest expected growth from 2002-2012 include:

Between 2002 and 2012:

• The civilian labor force is expected to grow by 12% or 17.4 million people, for a total of 162.3 million workers
• The fastest-growing group will be seniors.  The number of workers 55 and older is projected to increase by 49.3% - they will account for 19.1% of the work force, up from 14.3%
• The number of women in the work force will increase by 1% to 47.5%
• The number of men in the work force will decline by 1% to 52.2%

2/11/04

HIGHEST PAYING COLLEGE DEGREES

The latest survey on hiring and starting salaries indicates there may be more in 2004 for many college graduates.  The job market is not booming but for many new graduates the job outlook will not be quite as dismal as it was for last year's graduate according to the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE).

Although it is too early to know how well college seniors will do, employers surveyed said they expect college-grad hires to be up 12.7% from last year, which is the first hiring increase in 2 years.  Only 1/3 of disciplines are seeing starting salaries drop, compared to nearly half at the same time last year.

WHAT IS YOUR DEGREE WORTH?

1/10/04

DISAPPOINTING JOB GROWTH IN DECEMBER 2003

Although most economists had predicted 148,000 new jobs and unemployment of 5.9% in December, the actual numbers were only 1,000 jobs and unemployment of 5.7%.  The surprising decline in the rate of unemployment may be caused by the significant number of  those who stopped looking in a weak job market.

The nation has lost 2.4 million jobs since February 2001. just before the recession began.  Nearly 800,000 of those jobs have disappeared since the end of the recession in November 2001.

While the economy grew at 8.2% in the third quarter --- and probably will a still healthy 4% or so this year --- businesses have been achieving this growth by pushing their current workers harder and using technology more efficiently, not by adding new employees.

Exploding productivity --- or output per worker hour --- is good news for corporate profits and for workers' wages.  But is may mean a much slower job-market recovery, particularly since many employers continue to look for cheaper labor offshore.

A weak job market could prove tough for President Bush as the November election approaches:  

• When pushing for tax cuts earlier this year, Bush promised his proposals would create 300,000 jobs a month.   This prediction has not come anywhere close to being true.

And more recently, Treasury Secretary John Snow suggested the economy could:

• Start adding 200,000 jobs a month as early as October 2003. This prediction has not come anywhere close to true.

Most economists believe stronger hiring will come in 2004, and the National Federation of Independent Business said Friday that its December survey of small businesses showed hiring plans at their strongest level since August 2000.

So far, however, job growth is still "a matter of faith and forecasting rather than fact," in the words of Bill Cheney at John Hancock.

The December report indicates the following:

• Payrolls in service industries such as education and health care grew just 13,000 in December
• Retailers lost 38,000 jobs, possibly reflecting bad weather in early December and a strike at grocery stores in California
• Temporary help payrolls rose by 30,000 jobs
• Manufacturing lost 26,000 jobs --- the 41st straight month of falling factory payrolls
• The factory sector has lost 3.1 million jobs since peaking in March 1998
• Average hourly wages rose to $15.50 from $15.47 in November.  But average weekly earnings fell $2.08 to $522.35 --- wage growth is crucial for consumer spending
• Average work week shrank to 33.7 hours from 33.9 hours in November
• Percentage of private firms adding to payrolls also fell from November's three-year high

1/07/04

BUSH TO PROPOSE GUEST WORKER  PROGRAM FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS

President Bush will propose a sweeping overhaul of the nation's immigration laws that could give legal status to millions of undocumented workers in the United States, according to senior administration officials.  

Under this proposal, which effectively amounts to an amnesty program for illegal immigrants with jobs in the United States, enables an undocumented worker to apply for temporary work status here for an unspecified number of years, with all the employee benefits, like minimum wage and due process, accorded to those legally employed.

Workers who are approved would be permitted to travel freely between the United States and their home countries and would also be permitted to apply for a green card granting permanent residency in the United States.

Administration officials also said that Mr. Bush would also propose increasing the number of green cards issued each year, which is now about 140,000, but they did not provide a specific number.

Mr. Bush's proposal would "match willing workers with willing employers" and "promote compassion" by fixing what one called a "broken system."  The officials declined to call it an amnesty program.

Under the proposal, workers in other countries could also apply for guest worker status in the United States, provided there was no American to take the job.

But the president's plans are expected to face a tough fight in Congress, where conservative Republicans have said they consider programs like the one the president is proposing nothing more than a amnesty for people who have broken the law.

The presidents proposals were designed to appeal to Hispanic groups, a constituency that the White House is focusing on as Mr. Bush seeks re-election this year.  The proposals are expected to be embraced by President Vicente Fox of Mexico, who has been lobbying for them for the past three years.

Mr. Bush's proposal is closely modeled on legislation introduced last summer by Senator John McCain and Representatives Jim Kolbe and Jeff Flake, all Republicans from Arizona.  The issue of illegal workers has been an important one there.

The Bush proposals apply to illegal immigrants in the United States, which officials estimate at 8 million to 14 million people.  About 60% are thought to be Mexican.  No one is certain how many undocumented workers there are among all illegal immigrants, but Mr. Fox said that some 3.5 million of the workers are Mexican.

When Mr. Bush entered office the immigration reform was at the top of his foreign policy agenda, and in the late summer of 2001 various guest worker proposals were under discussion by United States and Mexican officials.  But the September 11 terrorist attacks that year let to increased concerns about the safety of America's borders and derailed the negotiations.

Under the new proposals, an undocumented worker and an employer would have to apply for the guest worker program hand in hand, with the employer serving as the sponsor for the worker.  There would also be a fee to register for the program, bur administration officials would not say how much that would be.

The plan also includes incentives for workers to return to their countries, like a promise of retirement benefits there based on income earned in the United States. 

Critics of Mr. Bush's proposal noted that unless the White House sought, and obtained, a large increase in the number of green cards issued each year, many of the undocumented workers who apply under the president's program could face an extended wait --- 10 to 20 years, by some estimates --- for residency.  

Administration officials acknowledge that the wait for green card can take up to six years or longer, meaning that some guest workers who apply for green cards but do not receive them would face the prospect of being forced to leave the United States. In that case, critics of the proposal said Tuesday night, workers would be better off remaining illegal and staying indefinitely in the United States, rather than revealing themselves to immigration officials when they sign up for program that may, these critics assert, lead to their deportation.

"They're asking people to sign up for program that is more likely to ensure their departure than ensure their permanent residency," said Cecilia Munoz, a vice president of the National Council of La Raza, a Hispanic advocacy organization.

Groups opposed to increased immigration also criticized the president's proposal.  "It's an amnesty, and no matter how much they danced around the fact," said Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center on Immigration Studies, and a group that seeks to limit immigration.  "It's legalizing illegal immigrants." 

Other critics say that the guest worker program could lead to the exploitation of immigrant workers. "If you are dependent on the employer filing a petition on your behalf, that employer has a tremendous club over you," said one person briefed on the president's proposal.

But an administration official said that the plan would protect the rights of undocumented workers, "who now live in the shadows, and are fearful of coming out of the shadows."

A number of limited guest workers programs already exist in the United States, but they are designed for skilled technology workers, who typically come from India, China, and Eastern Europe.

Mr. Bush will also argue, administration officials said, that his plan will make the country safer by giving the authorities a better idea of who is in the country and crossing its borders.

1/01/04

UNDEREMPLOYED, THOSE WHO HAVE STOPPED LOOKING, AND THE NEWLY SELF-EMPLOYED ARE NOT COUNTED IN JOBLESS RATES

According to a Los Angeles Times article by David Streitfeld, the nation's official jobless rate is 5.9%, a relatively benign level by historical standards.  But economists say that figure paints only a partial --- artificially rosy --- picture of the labor market.

To begin with, there are the 8.7 million unemployed, defined as those without a job who are actively looking for work.  But there are also 4.9 million part-time workers who say they would rather be working full time --- the highest number in a decade.

There are also 1.5 million people who want a job but did not look for one in the last month.  Nearly a third of this group say they stopped the search because they were too depressed about the prospect of finding anything.  Officially termed "discouraged," their number has surged 20% in a year.

Add these up and the jobless total for the U.S. hits 9.7%, up from 9.4% a year ago.  

By any normal standard, things should have been improving on the employment front long before this point.  More than 2 million jobs have been lost in the last three years, a period that encompassed a brief, nasty recession and a recovery that was anemic until recently.  Even in the best-case scenario, President Bush will end this term with a net job loss.  That hasn't happened to a president since Herbert Hoover at the beginning of the Depression.

Many economists are mystified about why a suddenly booming economy is producing so few jobs.  

One statistic that is perplexing is the percentage of the adult population that is employed.  This number rises during good times, as people are lured into the workforce, and falls during recessions as companies falter.

True to form, the percentage of adult Americans with jobs dropped from a high of 64.8% in April 2000, just as the stock market was cresting, to 62% in September --- the lowest in a decade.  If past recessions are any guide, those 5 million people who found themselves jobless should have driven the unemployment rate up to 8%.

Instead, the rate never went much above 6%.

"More than half of the additional people that would have reported themselves unemployed in a previous big recessionary period  ... aren't," a puzzled UC Berkeley economist, Brad DeLong, wrote on his website.  "They're reporting themselves as out of the labor force instead."

"Out of the labor force" means you're not working for even one hour a week and don't want to, either.  It is the traditional category for students, married women with young children, flush retirees, and idle millionaires.

A new way that people seem to be joining this category is by getting themselves declared disabled.  This designation makes them eligible for government payments while removing them from the unemployment roles.

From 1983 to 2000, the number of non-elderly adults receiving government disability payments doubled from 3.8 million to 7.7 million.  This jump has been prompted by liberalized screening policies, which make it possible to claim disabled status for several small impairments as opposed to one big injury.  Government examinations have also been downplayed in favor of the disabled's own medical records and the pain he or she claims to be experiencing.  Economists David Autor and Mark Duggan concluded that if disability payments were not so appealing, many more people would be unemployed, boosting the jobless rate two-thirds of a point.

Another way in which people forgo an appearance on the unemployment rolls is if they decide to go into business for themselves.  There are 9.6 million people who say they are self-employed full time, a number that rose 118,000 last month.  Without the recent increase in self-employed, the jobless number would look much worse.

The segment of the labor force that has been jobless for more than 15 weeks has risen nearly 150% since 2000.  The current level is the highest since the recession of the early 1990s.  Nearly one quarter of the jobless have been unemployed for more than six months.

12/24/03

ECONOMY SHOWS WEAKNESS IN HOUSING, MANUFACTURING

Factories saw orders for big ticket goods drop 3.1% and new home sales declined 2.4% in November, raising new questions about the strength of the economy.

Three economic reports out Wednesday showed signs of weakness:

1. Purchases of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted 1.082 million annual rate last month from an upwardly revised 1.109 million clip in October, the Commerce Department said.  It was the third consecutive drop in sales of new homes, which are typically more expensive than resale homes.
2. First-time applications for state unemployment insurance fell 1,000 to 353,000 the week ended December 20 from a revised 354,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said.
3. The drop in durable goods orders reported by the Commerce Department Wednesday came after a brisk 4% advance in October and a solid 2.2% increase in September.

The performance in November was considerably weaker than economists were expecting.  They were forecasting a 0.6% rise.  The weakness was broadly based, with cars, communications equipment, computers, and machinery among the categories showing a drop in orders.

The manufacturing sector was hardest hit by the 2001 recession and has struggled since then to recover.  The sector has lost 2.8 million jobs since July 2000, the month factory employment peaked in the last economic expansion.  

Wednesday's durable-goods report was inconsistent with a string of other economic reports in recent months that have suggested that the manufacturing sector may be on the mend.

Excluding orders for transportation equipment, which can swing widely from month to month, orders for all other big-ticket goods declined 3.7% in November, largest decrease since June 2002, Orders for:

• Communications equipment declined 40% last month, erasing all the 19.4% gain in orders seen in October.
• Computers dipped 0.3% in November, on top of a 0.8% drop the previous month.
• Cars and parts fell 1.2% last month, following a 0.5% decline.
• Machinery decreased 0.9%, compared with a 3.1% increase in October.
• Primary metals, including steel , dropped 2.6% in November after a 9.5% rise in October. 

The economy, reportedly, grew at a breakneck 8.2% annual rate in the third quarter, best performance in nearly two decades.  Economists believe the economy slowed in the current quarter, with estimates ranging from a pace of 4% to slightly above 5% -- still a healthy clip.

Jobless claims have been below the 400,000 level economists see as a divide between improving and deteriorating labor markets for 12 weeks -- longest stretch since a run that ended in April 2001.

The four-week moving average of initial claims fell for a second week, to 361,750 from 362,000 the previous week.

The department said the number of unemployed workers who continued to draw benefits fell 38,000 to 3.27 million the week ended December 13, latest week for which that figure is available.  That is the lowest level since shortly after the September 11, 2002, attacks.

12/18/03

BEWARE OF ONLINE JOB SCAMMERS - THEY ARE STEALING MILLIONS 

There is no job at home receiving and forwarding packages ... People like to think there are jobs like that, and that is why these scams are so successful!

If you are looking for jobs on job boards on the Internet, you need to be aware of and beware of  the hundreds of recruiting advertisements on sites like Monster.com and CareerBuilder.com.  These bogus ads have been spotted on 25 different Web sites.  The advertisements are innocuous enough:

"Our company is engaged in correspondence managing, distributing different goods worldwide, buying and reselling goods," says one version of the ad, which appeared on CareerbBuilder.com for about one week, until it was removed after MSBNC.com brought it to the Web site's attention.

The ad explained the need for U.S.-based employees to ship products overseas"  "Everybody knows Russia is a part of Europe, but most foreign people are afraid to have business with (sic) country... We would like to prove our respectableness, but when we communicate with people from other countries they can't avoid stereotypes.  So, we are looking for the persons who can represent our country in his country.  Their duty will be to accept money and different goods, because often people don't want to send money to my country."

Put simply, employees are used to move merchandise and money out of the United States.  Behind the scenes, the organized crime ring is using a variety of confusing tactics.

One variety of the scheme is designed to circumvent fraud protections at mail order companies and Web sites while stealing popular items such as handheld computers, digital cameras, and DVD players.  To avoid raising suspicion, the con artists make sure the shipping address -- the address of the "recruit" -- is in the same state as the billing address of the stolen credit card.  To do so, the con artists have a wide variety of employees and stolen credit cards to choose from.  They have also managed to change billing addresses on stolen credit cards so they match the recruit's locale.  Some 1,300 accounts were updated with new billing addresses at one credit card company victimized by the con artists.

Auction bidders, such as a man who purchased a $10,000 classic guitar on eBay, are also targeted.  Con artists impersonate a recruit and place auction items for sale.  They then tell the winners to wire funds to the recruit's U.S. bank account, avoiding any suspicions aroused by the mention of overseas wire transfers.  The recruit, of course, is then instructed to wire funds overseas.

In tough economic times, the promise of a 15% cut is enticing.  The homebound are at special risk of being caught up in the scam.  Social security recipients, people on disability, single parents, and unemployed people from coast to coast have been recruited.

While often not legally guilty of theft, recruits are often guilty of falsifying government documents, as they are instructed to declare the packages as "gifts" on Customs forms.  They might also be guilty of income tax evasion.

Recruits are also at risk of identity theft, since they give the con artists their bank account information and other critical data while signing up for the job.  One victim went to the police and the con artists threatened her.

People who are unemployed are often capable of extraordinary rationalization.

Making matters worse, online job sites often give users a false sense of security.  Consumers have the impression the ads have been vetted by the site  --  as newspapers classified ads often are.  

The use of fraudulent postal forwarding companies in a scam was first chronicled in April by MSNBC.com, but there is evidence the crime rings have been operating since April 2002.

There is not much optimism that the criminals will be caught any time soon; only consumer education can even slow them down.

Remember - there is no job at home receiving and forwarding packages.

There is no job sitting at home receiving and sending the money to Eastern Europe.

If you find a job posted on a Job site on the Internet that sound too good to be true, it probably is.  Don't respond to it!

12/18/03

JOB MARKET HAS IMPROVED, BUT NEEDS MORE IMPROVEMENT

According to a CNN/Money article by Mark Gongloff, jobless claims fell in the United States last week, coming in below Wall Street forecasts and offering a number of encouraging signs about the labor market.  

But some economists cautioned the recovery may continue to be painfully slow and called for another extension of a federal employments benefit program due to expire this month.  

The Labor Department said 353,000 people filed new claims for state unemployment benefits the week ended December 13, versus a revised 375,000 the prior week.  Economists, on average, expected 356,000 new claims.

Continued claims, the number pf people out of work for a week or more, rose 3.39 million for the week ended December 6, the latest data available, from a revised 3.33 million the prior week.

The good news is:

• The number of unemployment claims was the lowest since the week of November 1
• Jobless claims have remained below 400,000 - a level most economists consider to be an indicator of an improving job market - for 11 straight weeks, the best streak since April 2001
• The four-week moving average of the number of people drawing benefits for more than one week shrank to 3.33 million, the lowest since the fall of 2001
• Payrolls outside the farm sector have grown, though slightly, the past 4 months
• The unemployment rate has dropped to 5.9%  from its June peak of 6.4%
• Most economists are hoping the labor market will continue to gather steam next year

The job market still has quite a way to go before it can be declared completely healed:

• Twenty-four months after the latest recession's "official" end in November 2001, as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, all the jobs lost in the United States still have not been recovered - the longest such slump since World War II
• The current jobless recovery is significantly worse than the jobless recovery in 1991
• The number of people out of work for 27 weeks or more are higher, while the number of available jobs, as measured by the Labor Department is lower.
• There are 3 unemployed workers for every job opening, which shows how difficult it is, if you exhaust your unemployment benefits, to find a job in today's economy. 

12/7/03

UNEMPLOYMENT DECREASED IN NOVEMBER BUT EMPLOYMENT INCREASED MORE SLOWLY THAN EXPECTED

The unemployment rate dropped from 6% in October to 5.9% in November.  The last time it was lower was in March at 5.8%.  U.S. companies added 57,000 new jobs in November, boosting payrolls by 328,000 during the past four months following a half-year hiring drought.  But analysts had predicted about 150,000 new jobs would be added in November.

There have been four consecutive months of job growth which is only a bare start.  Economists are looking for payroll gains of 200,000 to 300,000 to significantly lower the unemployment rate and sustain a labor market recovery.

Democrats blame the loss of some 2 million jobs since 2001 on President Bush's handling of the economy.  But the Bush administration says the tax cuts have helped to energize the recovery.  

The jobs market has been a weak link in the recovery, with companies hesitant to hire new, full-time workers out of concern that the improvements would not last.  Instead, employers worked their employees longer and harder, sending productivity to a two-decade high last quarter.

In Friday's jobs report, the services sector continued to drive employment gains, with health care and social services jumping by 25,000 in November.  Hotels and lodging facilities created 13,000 new positions.  Hiring also occurred in education, government, and professional and business services.  In the goods-producing category, construction employment was up last month by 10,000.

KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

12/7/03

SELF-EMPLOYMENT AND THE DROP IN UNEMPLOYMENT

An article in the New York Times by Floyd Norris entitled Grasping at the Statistics on the Self-Employed indicates that the self-employed came to the rescue last month.  The result was that the unemployment rate came down even as companies were hiring fewer people than economists had expected.  

The apparent growth in self-employment may or may not be a good sign for the economy:

• Some people who say they are self-employed may really be out of work and trying to bring money in as consultants or freelance workers
• Others may be doing very well, living a dream of boss-free success

In any case, the number of reported self-employed workers rose by 156,000 last month, to 9.2 million,  The gain was a primary reason that the unemployment rate dropped to 5.9%.

The number of people on non-farm payrolls - a number that excludes the self-employed - rose just 57,000, far less than expected, and led analysts to call the report a disappointment.  

Many of the self-employed are Internet-based entrepreneurs.

The government collects two sets of employment data every month, a source of endless confusion because the two surveys sometimes provide widely varying pictures of the health of the job market.  Adding to the confusion is the fact that some of the statistics are "seasonally adjusted."

The survey to which Wall Street pays the most attention is the establishment survey, which questions employers about how many people are on payrolls.  It is that survey that provided disappointments this month, as it has done in the last few years.  But the report of strong growth a month ago set off hopes that the unemployment picture was finally improving.  This survey shows:

• There were 328,000 more jobs last month than in July, when employment hit its recent low
• Even with those increases, there are now 2.26 million fewer jobs, on a seasonally adjusted basis, then there were in January 2001 when President Bush took office

The other survey is the household survey, which involves asking questions of the same households reached each month by telephone.  That survey is used to calculate the unemployment rate, and in recent years has painted a less depressing picture of the employment situation.  The latest report finds that:

• There are now 757,000 more people working than in January 2001, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
• The seasonally adjusted gain over the last 2 months of 1 million people working is the largest 2-month move since the first two months of 2000, at the peak economic boom  

The percentage of people 16 years and older who are working rose to a record 64.8% in April 2000, fell to a low of 52% in September, and has now edged back to 62.4%.  Some moves may seem very small, but they involve a lot of people.  If 64.8% of the working-age population still was working, total employment would be more than 5 million people greater than it actually is.

In any case, the rise pf self-employment seems to be one bright spot.  The increase of 156,000 self-employed workers means they now account for 6.6% of the people in the household survey who say they are working, up from 6.1% when President Bush took office.

Without the growth in self-employment, it would be much more difficult to paint a rosy tint on the employment record.  But with them, it is possible to point to one government survey that indicates that more people are working now than at any time before.

11/14/03

JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE

After last week's dramatic drop in claims for jobless benefits, new claims rose this week above forecasts, as the labor market continued its slow recovery from a long slump.  

The Labor Department reported 366,000 people filed new claims for unemployment in the week ended November 8, compared with a revised reading of 353,000 in the prior week.  Economists, on average, expected 364,000 new claims according to Briefing.com.

Most economists consider new claims below the 400,000 threshold as a sign of an improving labor market, and last week was the sixth consecutive week of jobless claims below 400,000.

Editorial note:

These statistics, however, do not account for all those who are out of jobs and not collecting benefits, those who have taken seasonal jobs because no other opportunities were available to them, and those who have given up on looking for work.

11/14/03

MORE JOBS BUT AT LESS PAY

An article in Newsweek indicates that nearly 2.4 million jobs lost in the last three years will be added to the U.S. economy next year - that is the good news.  But the bad news is that most of the jobs will not be in the sectors that have laid-off most workers and they will pay less than those lost:

• If you lost your job in manufacturing, information technology, wholesale trade, or the federal government, you might consider a new career.  Those areas eliminated nearly 3 million jobs in two and one half years.  But many of them may be gone for good, lost to overseas facilities, outsourcing, automation, and obsolescence.
• The most significant thing is not that the economy is coming back and jobs are coming back but the disparity of what is coming back and what is not," says Detroit Mayor, Kwame Kilpatrick, a member of the U.S. Conference of Mayors, which commissioned the report by market researcher Global Insight.
• More than 4.1 million jobs were lost in manufacturing, administration, transportation, retail, technology, and wholesale trade during the past 3 years.  In the next two, 3.9 million jobs will be added to those same sectors, but that is still a quarter-million fewer jobs than were lost.  And the average annual salary of the new jobs is estimated to be $35,000 - $8,000 less than that of jobs lost.
• The Global Insight report predicts only "modest" employment gains through the end of 2003.  According to John Challenger, "between technology and globalization, a large majority of white-collar jobs have become obsolete, and they will either be eliminated altogether or dramatically altered.
• Most job gains in the next two years will be in the administrative and support-services sector, with about 845,000 new jobs expected at an average annual salary of $26,000.
• Healthcare and social assistance is the second fastest-growing sector in the country, with about 740,000 new jobs expected, paying an average of $37,400 annually.
• The food service and accommodations sector, which includes wait staff and hotel clerks, is expected to add nearly 500,000 jobs through the end of 2005, paying an average of $14,700 annually.
• Scientific and technological jobs are forecast to be the fourth fastest-growing sector with about 422,000 new jobs paying about $63,000 annually.
• Insurance and financial services industries are expected to add about 184,000 jobs at paying an average of $64,500 annually.
• There are a lot of fairly low-wage jobs - people are leaving the assembly line to move into home health care, guarding buildings, stocking retail shelves and warehouses, and working in restaurants.
• Most of the top sectors for job growth will pay average salaries in the $30,000 to $40,000 range - or below.  That may explain why many laid-off workers in manufacturing or management have remained unemployed for longer than they had expected, or taken a pay cut.
• That is not to say that other high-paying jobs are not out there, but there are fewer of them and more competition.
• According to John Challenger, "we will probably not see a true job market boom until the next economic cycle around 2008.  But it will be a big one.  That's the year leading edge baby boomers turn 62."

11/7/03

UNEMPLOYMENT DROPPED TO 6% IN OCTOBER

October payrolls increased by 126,000 and the jobless rate fell to 6%.  Adding jobs for the third straight month in a row seems to be new evidence that the job market is improving.  This increase is significantly more than the 50,000 new jobs predicted by economists.  That followed a revised 125,000 new jobs in September which initially was reported at 57,000.

October hiring occurred in the technical services, temporary employment firms, health care, social work, education, and retail sectors.

In October:

• 143,000 jobs were added in the Service Sector - the largest increase in 9 months, including a 33,000 gain in temporary services which have added jobs for the last 5 months. Economists say this shows companies still remain hesitant about the strength of the recovery and are waiting to take on the increased costs of hiring new workers
• 24,000 jobs were lost in the hard-hit manufacturing sector - it was the 37th month of job losses.  The pace of job losses has slowed considerably
• 8.8 million remained unemployed 
• 2 million have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more
• Jobs in the airline industry continued to decline
• Hiring in grocery stores got a boost as companies prepared for strikes in Southern California and elsewhere.  About 13,000 new jobs were added last month

11/7/03

UNDEREMPLOYMENT IS INCREASING

Millions of Americans are working part-time either because they are unable to find full-time work or because of the slack in the economy. Add these to the uncounted millions more who have had to take huge pay cuts in new or existing jobs, and you begin to get a picture of a labor market that might be quite a bit worse than suggested by the 6.1% jobless rate.

The Labor Department is expected to report Friday that the economy assed jobs in October for the second straight month, making up for some of the 2.6 million jobs lost since employment peaked in January 2001.  On average forecasters estimate employers added 50,000 net jobs last month, not enough to move the needle on the unemployment rate, which hit a nine-year high of 6.4% in June.

Nearly 5 million people were working part-time for economic reasons in September, up sharply from 4.4 million in August, according to government data.  

Even though the gross domestic product grew at a stunning 7.2% in the third quarter, wage and salary income rose just 0.6%.  Most of the gains fueling rising consumer spending were from other sources, including tax cuts and cash generated by mortgage refinancing activity.

According to Jared Bernstein, senior economist with the liberal Economic Policy Institute, "unless we get the labor market back in a pretty big way, you can't expect a very robust recovery." He said he was optimistic that the economy finally has turned the corner and begun adding jobs but noted that most analysts expect the unemployment rate to remain near 6% for most of the next year.  Some analysts even expect the jobless rate to rise as marginally attached workers, encouraged by reports of economic growth, begin looking for employment again.

John Challenger, a long-time observer of the labor market as head of an outplacement firm, was less optimistic.  He noted that U.S. companies announced planned lay offs of nearly 172,000 jobs in October, the highest total in a year.  Companies announcing lay offs in October include:

• Delphi - 8,500
• Merck - 4,400
• United Technologies - 1,200
• Monsanto - 920
• Textron - 700
• AK Steel - 475
• Lear - 306
• TECO Energy - 160
• FirstEnergy - 150

"We have had a very difficult year for the job market," Challenger said.  "There was a small upturn in job creation last month that fueled a lot of optimism, especially given the growth of GDP, but the forces that are leading to the downsizing we have seen throughout the last several years have not abated."

11/6/03

WEEKLY U.S. JOBLESS CLAIMS DECREASE

The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits dropped sharply last week, reaching a level not seen since before the economy tumbled into recession in 2001 according to the government.

Initial claims for state unemployment aid fell 43,000 to 348,000 in the week of November 1 from a revised 391,000 the prior week, the lowest since late January 2001.

Economists had expected claims to slip to 380,000 from 386,000 - a figure boosted by a grocery store strike in California --- initially reported for the week of October 25.

Initial claims and the four-week average have been below 400,000 for five weeks.  Economists see that level as a divide between an improving and deteriorating labor market.

A separate report showed business productivity soared in the third quarter, suggesting little risk inflation will flare despite signs the economic recovery is on firmer ground.  Companies' output in the July-to-September quarter rose 8.8% - the fastest pace since the end of 1992, and up from a 4.6% growth rate in the second quarter.

Workers' hours increased at a 0.7% rate in the third quarter, a turnaround from the 2.2% rate of decline reported in the previous quarter and offering another hopeful sign for the labor market.

For the economy's long-term health and rising living standards, solid productivity gains are crucial.  They allow the economy to grow faster without triggering inflation.  Companies can pay workers more without raising prices, which would eat up those wage gains.  And, productivity gains can bolster a company's profitability.

Analysts say the recent productivity pace is unsustainably strong, and some said the fall in jobless claims suggested firms were finally having to hire to meet demands.

On Friday, the Labor Department releases its employment report for October.  Financial market economists are looking for U.S. payrolls to rise 55,000 after a 57,000 gain in September.  They expect the jobless rate to hold steady at 6.1%.

More than a third of the 5,000 consumers surveyed last month by the Conference Board, a private research firm, said jobs were "hard to get," still higher than any time during the 2001 recession or last year's sluggish recovery.

"Although layoffs seem to be diminishing, surveys indicate that households continue to be worried about the condition of labor markets," Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned in  speech Thursday.

What's more, the economy still seems to be months away from creating the 150,000 or so jobs a month needed to help bring unemployment down. Without such growth, the unemployment rate likely will stay flat or rise.

"If job growth is just 50,000 a month, you can be sure that the unemployment rate is going to rise at some point in the coming months," said Ethan Harris, chief economist at Lehman Brothers

Economists are hopeful that businesses will in time begin to hire more as profits improve.

11/4/03

HIGHEST JOB CUTS IN A YEAR ANNOUNCED

According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the greatest number of job cuts since October 2002 occurred in October 2003.  U.S. businesses announced 171,874 job cuts.  In recent years October has become one of the worst job-cutting months of the year since it is a time when most companies are finalizing budgets and plans for the following year.  

This increase of job cuts by 125 percent, after declining for two months, calls into question the strength of the recovery in the job market.

Challenger said he doubted new jobs would be quick in coming.

"With factors like technology, outsourcing, and consolidation working against job creation, any job market rebound we see in the near future will be relatively small," Challenger said.

Though unemployment is typically a lagging economic indicator, the U.S. economy has enjoyed eight straight quarters of economic growth, including a growth rate of 7.2 percent in the third quarter of 2003, without significant job creation.  In fact, since the declared end of the latest recession, in November 2001, more than a million payroll jobs have been lost, according to the Labor Department.

Of 50 human resources executives surveyed:

• 78 percent said they do not expect to see a "significant" upturn in hiring until the second quarter of 2004
• 11 percent said the pick-up would be delayed until the third or fourth quarter of 2004
• Another 11 percent said there would be no hiring rebound at all in 2004

So far this year there have been 1.04 million job-cut announcements, making 2003 the third straight year in which more than a million cuts have been announced.

The job cuts included:

• Automotive Industry - 28,363
• Retail - 21,169
• Telecommunications - 21,030
• Industrial Goods - 17,484
• Consumer Products - 12,077

The states with the highest number of job losses were:

• Michigan - 31,105
• Texas - 21,033
• New York - 20,486
• New Jersey - 10,750
• California - 10,719

11/4/03

TYCO CUTS 7,200 JOBS

Tyco International will slash about 7,200 jobs as part of an aggressive restructuring plan to streamline the far-long empire of built by former chairman Dennis Kozlowski  including the sale of an undersea fiber-optic cable network that lost billions of dollars.

The Bermuda-based conglomerate also posted a quarterly loss on a $1.2 billion charge for restructuring and divestitures that include exiting more than 50 business lines with annual revenue of $2.1 billion.  That is about 6 percent of Tyco's total revenue base.

The businesses Tyco is exiting are in every segment of the diversified industrial conglomerate's operations, except plastics and adhesives.

The restructuring also includes the consolidation of more than 200 manufacturing, sale, and distribution facilities.

10/31/03

7.2% RISE IN GDP - FASTEST GROWTH IN 19 YEARS

The United States economy grew at the fastest pace in nearly two decades in the third quarter, signaling the three-year slowdown that has left millions of Americans jobless might finally be over. 

Gross domestic product - the broadest gauge of activity within the USA - grew an annualized 7.2 percent in July, August, and September, the biggest gain since 1984 and more than twice the 3.3 percent increase measured in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department.

Consumer and business spending exceeded estimates from even the most optimistic economists.  Economists credited record mortgage refinancings, which pared monthly payments and freed cash, and tax cuts signed into law in late May.  That included a $14 billion bonus for parents that hit mailboxes right before the back-to-school shopping season.

Consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of all activity in the $10 trillion economy, soared 6.6 percent, the biggest gain in more than five years.

Economists at the White House and in the private sector warned the blistering pace came from an unprecedented stimulus convergence that would not be matched. Still, many said the report suggested that after several false starts, the economy, which has been sluggish since late 2000, was firmly on solid ground.

The biggest risk for the economy and Bush's re-election prospects is the employment picture.  There have been few solid signs that hiring is picking up despite the improvement in the economy.  Democratic presidential contenders have faulted Bush for the loss of 2.6 million jobs during his tenure.

But there may be hope.  Business spending in the third quarter grew 11.1 percent, the biggest increase the beginning of 2000, as spending on equipment and software soared.  That suggests firms might be becoming more confident about the economy and might be willing to hire new employees.

10/20/03

TALL PEOPLE MAKE MORE MONEY

A University of Florida study indicated that each inch of height adds about $789 a year in pay over shorter co-workers.

These findings are troubling because with few exceptions height is not an essential ability required for fob performance nor a job qualification.

In the course of a 30-year career, the difference is literally hundreds of thousands of dollars of earning advantage that a tall person enjoys.

The relationship between height and earnings was particularly strong in sales and management but also was present in less social occupations such as engineering, accounting, and computer programming.

10/19/03

IS A DEGREE STILL A GOOD INVESTMENT

According to Liz Pollen of CNBC, regarding employment:

• Associate's degrees are a slam dunk.  These two-year degrees seem to result in a massive payback, compared to their relatively low cost, for a high school graduate.
• Ditto, usually, a bachelor's degree.  Any bachelor's degree you get at a public university is likely to pay off handsomely, as well.  If you're attending a private college, though, you might want to steer clear of education degrees.
• Some degrees are a step back - a master's in liberal arts or social sciences should be for the love of learning, because on average there doesn't seem to be any financial payoff.
• Professional degrees rule.  There is a reason why people borrow tons of money to attend law and medical schools.  The return for a professional degree is huge.

THE CALCULATIONS

The Census Bureau figures --- average pay rates for specific degrees, last collected in 1996.  As a proxy for real lifetime earnings, it's not perfect, but it does reflect the wide range of pay scales for each degree, from those just starting out to those ready for retirement. 

What the author was looking for was the "present value" of the increase in future income that could be expected with various educations.  A dollar paid in the future is worth less than a dollar today, but it does have value.  Compute the values of all those future dollars and you get a lump-sum figure that can be compared with the cost of an education to see whether the investment in tuition was worthwhile.

Professional investors do these calculations all the time to determine whether to put money on the line.  It's also the process used to determine the payout amount when a lottery winner opts for a lump sum rather than 20 or more years of annual payments.

Normally, a net-present-value calculation would subtract the upfront investment cost.  Since education costs can vary so widely, the author is presenting the numbers without that subtraction.  You can do your own math, depending on how much you think your education will set you back.

MILEAGE MAY VARY

The College Board tells us that four years' worth of tuition, fees, books, and supplies at a public university currently cost about $20,000, while the private version will set you back $80,000.  Add in room, board, transportation, and other costs, and the total tab is about $50,000 for public schools and $110,000  for private schools.

Your costs may vary:

• People often don't pay the "rack rate" for college; most get discounts of some kind, typically in the form of financial aid
• Loans taken out to pay for school will increase the cost, since you have to pay them back with interest.  The higher the rate, the bigger the cost:  A $20,000 loan at 8% will cost nearly $30,000 to pay back over 10 years.
• You typically can't know in advance how much interest you will pay, since rates on student loans are set after you graduate, and your payments begin.

BENEFITS OF AN ASSOCIATE'S DEGREE

The average increase in income from an associate degree, compared to what a high school graduate would get is about $116,550.  AA degrees in engineering and computers have the biggest payoffs:

BENEFITS OF A BACHELOR'S DEGREE

Engineering and computers are the big money-makers, although the business degree has a higher-than average present value.  The only squeaker here is the education degree, which makes sense.  If you are going to teach in a public school, you probably don't want to blow $110,000 on an Ivy League education if financial calculations are your motivating factor.

Layoffs in January 2003

Layoffs in December 2002

Layoffs in November 2002

Layoffs in October 2002

Layoffs in September 2002

Layoffs in August 2002

Layoffs in July 2002

Layoffs in June 2002

Layoffs in May 2002

Layoffs in April 2002

Layoffs in March 2002

Layoffs in February 2002

Layoffs announced January 2002

Layoffs announced November / December 2001

Layoffs announced September 2001

Layoffs in June / July / August 2001

Some earlier lay-offs in 2001:

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1/12/03

More Job Losses

December 2002 produced the largest cut in jobs in 10 months, surprising economists who had expected a slight improvement in the employment picture.

Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 101,000, the Labor Department reported.  November payrolls were revised sharply lower to a drop of 88,000, more than twice as many jobs as first thought.

The unemployment rate held steady at an eight-month high of 6%. Some cities, like Cleveland, Ohio have a reported 12% unemployment rate.

Economists had expected payrolls to increase by 30,000, according to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC.

• The government attributed the decline in jobs to cutbacks in manufacturing, which eliminated 65,000 jobs, the greatest cut since February.  
• In 2002, manufacturers cut nearly 600,000 jobs.
• The services-producing industry cut 42,000 jobs, again marking the largest reductions since February.
• A surprising 104,000 job losses from retailers, who typically increase jobs during the holiday season, 80,000 were from bars, restaurants, and food stores.
• There were close to 200,000 job cuts in the last 2 months, making them the worst 2 months in the last year.
• U.S. businesses cut more than 1.8 million jobs during the recession of 2001 and the stop-and-start recovery in 2002.
• With financial markets struggling, an abundance of unused production capacity, and fears about possible war in Iraq, businesses have been reluctant to hire until they are sure the economy has its legs again.

In spite of the concerns about unemployment and the economy, 6% unemployment is relatively low, compared with a peak of 7.8% during the 1990-91 recession and 10.8% in 1982.  Still, it matches the highest level since August 1994 and has moved little since December 2001.

Another poor indicator is that the average work week shrank by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours, providing little incentive for hiring more workers.

The news could put pressure on Congress to quickly pass an economic stimulus plan.  On the first day of its new season this year, Congress passed an extension of unemployment benefits for the many workers whose benefits expired at the end of 2002.

On a brighter note, the average manufacturing work week jumped to 40.9 hours, the highest level since August 2002, from 40.6 in November.  The gain combined with a positive report by the nation's purchasing managers about manufacturing activity in December, could indicate that the manufacturing sector might be getting closer to recovery.

Also, workers' income continued to rise, as average hourly earnings gained 5 cents to $14.98.

10/13/02

Few Jobs Are Being Created Causing Pain Everywhere!

Almost a year after the economy began growing again, the country continues to suffer with a major job slump that has spread the pain more evenly than almost any downturn on record.

Few companies have hired significant numbers of new employees, and the worrisome economic signs of the last month have caused some to announce new layoffs, making the year's recession feel to many as if is still going on.  Despite indications that the economy is still advancing and predictions from most experts that it will improve next year, a majority of Americans, polls show, think that the economy is either deteriorating or remaining weak.

The weak growth of the last year has made the jobless recovery of the early 1990s which once seemed like a painful exception to previous economic patterns, look like it could be the norm.  Although the economy has become considerably stronger over the last two decades, with downturns being shalllower and coming less frequently, the hangovers they cause appear to endure much longer.

The layoffs of the last year and a half have been in all sectors.  The collapse of technology businesses in the late 1990s has hurt white collar workers even more than blue collar workers.  The unemployment rate for college graduates has increased as much since early last year as it has for high school dropouts.  Joblessness among whites has increased by about the same amount, in proportional terms, as it has among blacks and Hispanics.  In past downturns, those hit the hardest were low-paid, minorities, and less-educated men.

Many white collar workers, just a few years removed from good salaries and rich benefits that often included stock options, are struggling to find jobs that pay anything close to what they had been making.

Others have applied to graduate and professional schools, making admission unusually difficult over the last year.  Law school applications for the class that enrolled this fall rose 15.4% over the previous year, the largest increase since the Law School Admission Council began keeping track.

Last week, Credit Suisse First Boston reported it will be cutting 1,500 white collar jobs and many of its Wall Street rivals are taking similar steps.  The lack of a recovery in technology spending has brought new cuts in that industry, including the 1,350 layoffs that EMC, which sells data storage systems, announced earlier this month, and the additional 10,000 layoffs announced Friday by Lucent, the telecommunications equipment maker.  The slight weakening of consumer spending has led to job losses at some companies that until now weathered the downturn unusually well.

The number of people on payrolls fell in September for the first time in five months, help-wanted advertising has dropped significantly, and the number of unemployment claims, while volatile, has generally risen.

In a recent New York Times / CBS poll, 66% of respondents said the economy was in bad condition, up from 39% in June. 

Although there does not seem to be enough indication of any kind of economic recovery for employers to add workers, barring an unexpected shock, the job market does seem likely to improve, particularly over the longer term.  If the recovery follows the same pattern as a decade ago, companies will begin adding more than 10,000 jobs a month by early next year.  The fallout from the overinvestment in technology and the stock market bubble could make this rebound less robust, but the labor market is expected to tighten over the next decade, as the advance guard of baby boomers begins retiring and fewer young adults replace them in the labor force.

The unemployment rate --- which probably will go up again for a number of reasons --- fell to 5.6% in September, its second consecutive decline.  The economy continues to grow at a modest pace, and in recent weeks companies have asked employees to work longer hours, as often happens shortly before new hiring begins. 

10/10/02

Will There Be A Double Dip Recession?

Until recently economic data has supported the view of economists that there would not be another recession.  

The National Bureau of Economic Research, a private group of economists examines the following information before calling the start of a recession:

• Number of employees on non-farm payrolls
• Industrial output
• Sales by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers
• Real personal income

Of the four criteria, the most critical is the employment figure.  During the recession that began in March 2001, payrolls fell for 13 straight months.

But payrolls fell by about 43,000 jobs in September while industrial production fell in August, the first decline since December 2001.  If these numbers are not revised, as they sometimes are, and they start a trend, the economy might already have fallen back into recession in September.

One analyst stated that if we get another month or two of payroll declines, there won't be any shortage of people saying a double dip has started.

The economy is facing risks, particularly the reluctance of businesses to hire new workers and increase production until uncertainties about the economy, a possible war in Iraq, and falling stock prices clear up.

On the positive side, there is the continuing strength of consumer spending, which contributed to increasing the GDP by 3% in the third quarter.  Though GDP growth is expected to slow in the fourth quarter --- especially since a lot of the strength was in automobile sales, which won't contribute much to the fourth quarter, it's is still expected to be OK.

High levels of consumer debt are a major threat to the current economy, with household debt loads at record highs relative to disposable income and Americans spending $1.22 for every dollar they earn.

Personal bankruptcies and mortgage foreclosures are at record levels and delinquency rates are rising on credit cards, auto loans, and other debts, resulting in endangering consumer spending, which fuels 2/3 of the total economy.

Until unemployment goes down, there is a major problem in the economy.

The corporate sector has deeper problems caused by a glut of excess productivity capacity following the technology spending boom at the end of the 1990s.  The spending rapidly declined in the second half of 2000, after the stock market bubble burst and businesses faced the realities of the new decade.  Most with left with an oversupply of unsold computers, peripherals, and other technology products.  Between 1993 and 2000, payrolls expanded by about 250,000 jobs a month.  Payroll growth hit a brick wall in June 2000, growing by only 38,000 jobs, and it has been pretty much downhill ever since.

According to the Lacy Hunt, chief economist at Hoisington Investment Management in Austin, Texas, we have basically been in one long recession that started in the Fall of 2000.

Continuing stock-market weakness could be one sign that the downturn of the economy still has not ended.

In every one of the last 19 recessions, there was a meaningful upturn in the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index that took place about six months before the recession ended.  That has not happened yet.  The stock market has never given a false signal about recovery before the recession ended.

7/15/02

Job Market Still Looks Bad

The weak stock market and corporate scandals are contributing to the slow recovery of jobs.  

The unemployment rate increased to 5.9% according to a July 5th report by the Labor Department.  Government statisticians again revised the prior months' levels of employment revealing a job market much weaker than previously thought.

Although the economy seems to be slowly on the road to recovery, the labor market lags behind.

Revisions in payroll estimates have also been extremely negative this year with every month's report revised downward.  The Labor Department job revisions include:

• February - a gain of 66,000 to a loss of  165,000 jobs
• March - a gain of 58,000 to a loss of 5,000 jobs
• April - a gain of 43,000 to a loss of 21,000 jobs
• May - again of 41,000 to a gain of 24,000 jobs

Employment in November 2001 was 340,000 below original estimates

Employment now shows 13 consecutive monthly declines through April, exceeding the 11 straight losses in 1990-1991.  The job losses in 1990-1991 were greater and continued into 1992.  A similar difficult period could be in store for workers now because:

• The recovery so far is subpar
• Employers are very determined to increase output per employee rather than number of employees

While new jobs were stagnant last month, there were signs that the economy is continuing to grow.

In an uncertain economy:

• Employers tend to increase worker hours rather than hiring new ones to avoid the need to reduce staffing and eliminate personnel - the average work week rose from 34.2 to 34.3 hours; the work week in manufacturing rose from 40.9 to 41.1 hours
• Hire temporary workers - temporary employment increased by 9,000

Businesses are reluctant to expand because concerns about the stock market, attacks on accounting standards, and fears of re-regulation.

The economy can grow although the job market remains weak because companies are increasing production with the current number of employees.

6/29/02

Job Cuts Hard on Telecom Industry

WorldCom's demise is adding to the woes of workers in the telecommunications industry.  Telecommunications companies have exceeded any other industry in the number of publicly announced job cuts in the last 18 months.

Most of the job cuts in the telecommunications industry have come from layoffs, buy-outs, and forced retirements.  They have come from dozens of companies that build and operate networks for telephone service, cable television, the Internet, e-mail, and data transmission.  These companies wildly overexpanded in the 1990s and having been rushing to shrink ever since, serving as a drag on the economic recovery.

According to Kenneth McGee, a telecommunications expert at Gartner Reserach, "they have to cut another 10% of their employees to get down to where that should be  And in the next economic expansion they won't need those people back."

In total, the United States has lost 1.5 million jobs since the recession began in March 2001, with the telecommunications industry contributing 167,000 to the loss through April 2002.

Some economists are reluctant to declare that a new economic expansion firmly under way until a revival in the job market is clearly happening.

While telecommunications companies like WorldCom continue to eliminate jobs, many other industries have stopped doing so.  Since April, national employment has even begun to grow a little, although so far adding back only 40,000 jobs.

A Stanford economist and chairman of the committee of economists that designates when recessions and recoveries begin and end, Robert Hall says that "we have regained almost none of the lost jobs and we are still very stalled."

The telecommunications companies will not be rehiring.  Once the downsizing is over, the industry may level off at fewer than 1.2 million employees.  Some of the lost jobs represented overstaffing and right now there is an over supply of wireless and fiberoptic networks.

If past recoveries are an indicator, those who have lost jobs in telecommunications will eventually find work in other industries.

Until WorldCom announced this week that it would eliminate 17,000 jobs on top of the 6,000 lat year - drastically reducing a work force that totaled 85,000 in January - few companies in the telecommunications industry had drawn more attention for eliminating jobs than AT&T.  Since the beginning of 2001, it has announced more than 20,000 cuts, or roughly 16% of its jobs.

Competition from resellers, less labor intensive cell phones, and low labor requirements for high speed Internet DSL service have also contributed to downsizing.

According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, from January through May 2002,  job cut announcements in the telecommunications industry reached 135,385, or nearly 29% of all such announcements.  That was up from 102,366 in the same period in 2001.

6/26/02

Hot U.S. Tech Sector Cooled Off

The recession has reduced consumers interests in purchasing computers and decreased investment in technology stocks, according to a recent report by the American Electronics Association.

Microsoft, Intel, and other high-tech companies hired only 80,000 workers last year compared to more than 400,000 in 2000.  "After years of strong employment growth in the high-tech industry, job growth slowed considerably in 2001.

Investments in the high-tech industry dropped 60% to $26.6 billion last year.  The industry also suffered from the failure of a number of Internet-based retailers.  John Villasenor, a UCLA professor and high tech investment consultant believes that the demise of unprofitable dot-coms should leave the industry leaner and better poised to rebound.

Economists are uncertain if recovery in the high-tech industry will take place this year or several years from now.

The largest losses of high-tech jobs took place in electronic manufacturing state such as Texas, Minnesota, South Dakota, Indiana, and Utah.  Total electronic manufacturing jobs fell to 1.9 million in 2001, down 65,000 from the previous year.

The good news in the American Electronics Association Report includes:

• Computer software companies and communications services companies hired almost 150,000 new workers last year, increasing the number of jobs in those sectors to almost 3.7 million
• Growth in jobs was evident in California, Kansas, Virginia, Oregon, and New Jersey
• Strong demand for relatively new gadgets such as cell phones and compact MP3 digital music players helped prevent a more severe loss of jobs in electronic manufacturing.  These new products helped revitalize the industry even in dark times 

6/2/02

Recession is Over But Job Pain Remains

According to an MSNBC news article by Martin Wolk, the recession of 2001 is over and the economy resumed its normal path of growth early this year, if not late last year.  This recession is described as the mildest on record.

In the first quarter of 2002, GDP surged 5.6%, its fastest in nearly two years.  This was slightly slower than previously estimated, and fully 3.5% stemmed from a temporary inventory correction, leaving underlying sales growth in the modest 2% range.

In any case, recessions are not determined by GDP, despite widespread popular belief.  Instead, the National Bureau of Economic Research panel that establishes business cycle dates focuses on 4 measures, including industrial production and employment.  And by those 2 measures, the recession could be considered moderate to severe.

Industrial production fell for 15 straight months in 2000 and 2001, cutting manufacturing output by about 6.5% from its peak before resuming growth early this year.  In the 1990-91 recession output fell only about 4.5% and industrial production resumed after only 6 months.

The evidence seems clear that the manufacturing recession finally came to an end this year, with industrial production having risen for 4 straight months now.  Orders for long-lasting durable goods rose 1.1% in April, and orders for new cars and trucks rose a strong 12%.

But while production is rising, employment is not.

Employment grew in April for the first time in 9 months although the work force grew even faster, so the unemployment rate rose to 6%, its highest level in nearly 8 years.  Moreover, in its past 2 monthly reports the government has revised away job growth that originally had been reported for the previous month.  So it is far from certain whether the April job growth figures will "stick" or whether the yearlong trend of job losses has been reversed.

There are many reasons to believe that it has not, including:

• New claims for unemployment benefits which have been over 400,000 for 9 straight weeks
• 3.87 million Americans are collecting unemployment insurance, the most since February 1983 
• Unemployment claim figures have been inflated by a recent federal extension of benefits, but there is other evidence that many businesses are still cutting costs by eliminating jobs
• In April, companies, government agencies, and non-profit organizations announced plans to eliminate more than 112,000 jobs, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That is still well above the 44,000 a month rate that prevailed for most of 2000 before the downturn hit

From a job-seekers standpoint, it is still a recession.  John Challenger said it takes his outplacement clients nearly 3 1/2 months on average to find a new job, up from 2 months a year ago.  "The number of people who have been out of work for 6 months or more is going up.  A lot of people are taking odd jobs."

The conventional wisdom is that job growth always lags an economic recovery as companies wait to see rising profits before expanding the work force.  Also, as the economy shows more signs of improving, more workers who had become discouraged re-enter the labor force hoping to find jobs.  The economy is started to create rather than shred jobs but it is not doing it fast enough.  But Challenger raised the possibility that many of the recent jobs lost will remain gone forever, victims of the rising productivity companies have been able to wring out of new technology.

Companies are learning to use new technology that creates structural job loss.  But Bob Brusca, chief economist for Dupont Direct Financial Holdings says "it does look like we are beginning to turn the corner, and I think that's real news - that's good news.  There probably is still some risk to recovery, but basically the economy is touching the bases it needs to recover."

5/3/02

U.S. Jobless Rate Increases to 6%

The jobless rate shot up to 6% in April - the highest point in nearly 8 years even though U.S. companies added jobs for the first time in 9 months.

The labor department reported that payrolls grew by 43,000 during the month, a welcome sign after companies had slashed hundreds of thousands of jobs to cope with last year's recession and the September 11th attacks.

Job growth was not strong enough to take care of the 565,000 people who entered the work force during the month which caused the unemployment rate to rise to 5.7%.

April's jobless rate was the highest since August 1994.

Job growth in services, normally an engine of job creation in the United States, rose by 87,000, recouping job losses that totaled 245,000 in October and November.

On the job front, after more than a year of sustained job cuts, temporary help firms added 66,000 positions in April, the third straight month of job gains.  Economists believe this is an encouraging sign for job growth in general in the months ahead.  Companies often hire temporary workers before they hire new full-time workers or rehire laid-off workers, they say.

Employment in the insurance industry rose by 9,000, after suffering 6 months of job losses.

The construction industry eliminated 79,000 jobs.

Factories, hardest hit by the recession, cut 19,000 in April.  But job losses show signs of moderating.  Job losses in this industry were averaging 119,000 from March 2001 to January.

Employment held steady in electronic equipment manufacturing, and rose slightly in industrial machinery, following more than a year of heavy losses in both industries.

Employment continued to drop at motor vehicle and aircraft plants.  

Even as the economy recovers, the unemployment rate is expected to rise in coming months.  Some economists predict the jobless rate will peak at from just over 6% to around 6.5% by June, reflecting their belief that companies will be reluctant to quickly hire back laid-off workers until profits recover and executives are convinced the recovery is here to stay.

The economy came out of recession with a 5.8% growth rate in the first quarter of this year.  But analysts estimate the recovery has slowed in the current quarter and they project economic growth at a 3% and 3.5% rate.

4/26/02

First Quarter Internet Sales Soar

The first quarter is usually a slow period for retail business, but this year it was a busy time for online merchants.  This increase is attributed to:

• The after effects of September 11, 2001
• An improving economy
• An influx of new shoppers on the Web
• Increased spending from previous customers

On Tuesday, Amazon.com reported a net loss smaller than Wall Street projections and said sales grew faster than anticipated.  The industry bellwether credited the improvement to price cuts and offers of free shipping.

1-800 Flowers, a Web site that sells flowers and other gifts, announced a slight profit for its fiscal third quarter - its second straight period of profitability - beating Wall Street projections of a 2% loss.  Sales met expectations, but the company attracted a larger-than-anticipated number of new customers with a decrease in marketing spending.

Bluenile.com, an online jeweler, achieved a 10% sales gain and has had a 30% increase in April from a year ago.

Bizrate.com. a Web site and research firm that tracks 2,000 online sites, noted that the number of new shoppers on the Web is gaining momentum.  Bizrate estimated that this year's first quarter Internet sales of new goods, not including travel, soared 41% to $11.6 billion, exceeding expectations of 27% growth.  The better-than-anticipated first quarter results prompted bizrate.com to raise its sales growth expectations from 26% to 44% for this year.

In a separate report, comScore Networks Inc. said Internet sales, including travel, generated $17 billion for the first quarter, representing a 48% increase, compared to a year ago.  Online sales, excluding travel, totaled $10.1 billion, a 30% growth from a year ago.

According to Bizrate.com, Internet sales rose 24% in 2001, helped by a rush of users making donations to various charities following September 11th who then became Internet shoppers.

There were 66 million new online shoppers at the beginning of 2002, and Jupiter Research expects that figure to increase to 82 million by the end of the year, a 24% gain on top of last year's 34% rise.

Executives also were pleased by the increase in average purchases.  Bluenile.com reported sales of big diamonds of 2 or more carats doubled in April from a year earlier.  The hard hit travel industry had an 87% sales gain from a year ago.

To achieve sales and online customer loyalty, many etailers are continuing discounts and free shipping because the fight for consumers' dollars remains extremely competitive. 

4/18/02

Jobless Claims Edge Up Slightly

New job claims for unemployment compensation inched up last week, suggesting that some people are having trouble holding onto their jobs even as the economy recovers from the recession.  For the work week ending April 13, new claims for jobless benefits increased by a seasonally adjusted 1,000 to 445,000, the Labor Department reported.

Employment is considered a lagging economic indicator because businesses, which had shed workers during the slump, want to make sure the rebound is here to stay before hiring them back.

Businesses added jobs in March for the first time in 8 months, a clear sign that the economy is bouncing back from a recession that began in March of 2001.  But job growth wasn't strong enough to prevent the nation's unemployment rate from rising to 5.7%.

A government analyst said the layoff picture continues to be clouded by a technical fluke, which has caused the level of claims to be inflated over the past several weeks.

The distortion is coming from a requirement that laid-off workers seeking to take advantage of a federal extension for benefits must be required to submit new claims.

Congress recently passed legislation signed into law by President Bush that provided a 13-week extension of jobless benefits.

The more stable four-week moving average of new claims, which smoothes out week-week fluctuations, also rose last week to 448,750, the highest since the middle of November.

It is still believed that the labor market is improving and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan does not foresee a period of chronic unemployment. 

Thursday's report also showed that the number continuing to receive unemployment benefits rose to 3.84 million for the work week ending April 6.  That was the highest level since February 26, 1983.

4/14/02

Job Outlook for 2002 New Graduates

The job market for college graduates is not as bright as it was this time last year or over the past 3 years, however, it is not as dismal as you might believe either.

New graduates need to start looking earlier, shake a lot of recruiters' hands, and make the job search a priority to secure a place in the work force at graduation.

Employers expect to hire 20% fewer 2002 graduates than 2001 graduates according to the annual Job Outlook survey by the National Association of Colleges and Employers.  Overall, 30% of employers say they will hire fewer new graduates from the class of 2002.

Employers say job opportunities will be available.  About one third say they will hire more new graduates, and 2 out of 5 employers expect to maintain their college hiring at the same level as last year.

Best bets for jobs for  new graduates are in the South and Northeast.  The West and Midwest offer fewer opportunities.

Hiring cuts are biggest among employers who hired large numbers of new college graduates last year.  Industries with poorer hiring outlooks include:

• Manufacturers (worst) - expect to hire a third fewer new graduates
• Service employers expect college hiring to be down 24.2%
• Communications companies
• Automotive and mechanical equipment manufacturers
• Financial services firms

Industries that characterize the job markets within their industries as good include:

• Government and non-profit organizations - project 20.5% increase in college hiring
• Engineering / surveying firms
• Federal government agencies
• Public accounting firms

Although the high tech industry has been hit hard by the poor economy, employers still need computer science graduates.

It is a buyers market so you have to sell yourself.  Employers are impressed with job candidates who have excellent communication skills, honesty/integrity, teamwork skills, interpersonal skills, and a strong work ethic.  

Experience directly related to your major is most desirable, including jobs, internships, and co-op positions.

The majority of employers agree that grooming strongly influences their hiring decisions. The best advice is to be conservative.

4/11/02

Jobless Claims Drop 

U.S. firms added jobs in March for the first time in eight months, new evidence that the economy is on the road to recovery.

 Fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment insurance this week, but the layoffs picture continues to be clouded by a technical fluke that was a big factor in the prior week's surge in claims.  The Labor Department reported that jobless benefits dropped by a seasonally adjusted 55,000 to 438,000, for the week ending April 6.

Even with the decline, a government analyst said the claims number continued to be inflated because of the fluke:  Laid-off workers seeking to take advantage of a federal extension for benefits were required to submit new claims.

Congress recently passed legislation signed into law by President Bush that provided a 13-week extension of jobless benefits.  Because of the new law, private economists predicted the number of laid-off workers continuing to draw benefits would be higher in the weeks ahead as the unemployed received benefit extensions.

Laid-off workers continuing to receive unemployment benefits rose to 3.8 million for the work week ending March 30.  That was the highest level since March 19, 1983.

Given the distortions, economists continued to be optimistic that the job market --- battered by the recession that began in March 2001 and jolted by the September 11th terrorist attacks --- was getting better.

Last week, the government reported payrolls grew by 58,000 in March.  Even with the improvement, job growth in March was not strong enough to prevent a rise in the nation's unemployment rate, which rose 5.7%

4/03/02

Job Hoppers Are Finding Going Tough

Those who've changed jobs frequently may be first to go and the last to be hired in lean employment market

Workers who have changed jobs frequently in recent years are more likely to be the victims of job cuts than they were in the past.

Chicago outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. found in its most recent Job Market Index that 31.9% of unemployed job seekers in the fourth quarter had worked for four or more companies.

That was up from 34.27% in the third quarter, suggesting that companies are quicker to cut job-hoppers.

In addition, the percentage of job seekers who had worked for only one company in their careers dropped from 10.48% to 9.93%.

Reportedly, job-hopping is a concern as companies have turned their focus in the last months to employee ethics.  Employers fear that job hoppers are interested in only money and that they may abandon ship just when they are needed most.  Some companies may be cutting job hoppers as a pre-emptive strike.

Still, experts say technology workers should not hide their wandering work history when they apply for jobs.  Everyone is going to check references more thoroughly and candidates are being asked for four, five, and six references.

More employers are not even considering interviewing job hoppers because they are interested in loyalty.

Candidates need to be able to explain the reasons for job hopping in a logical manner - reasons for leaving technology jobs like employer bankruptcy, evaporated venture capital, new opportunities for advancement or learning can all be valid, acceptable reasons for job changes.

Above all, never fudge or lie on a resumé.  Employers will eventually discover the truth and the lie will come back to haunt you.

3/19/02

Companies Return to Hiring

According to an article on USAToday.com by Stephanie Armour, improving economic news means hiring freezes are starting to be lifted.  Even companies that had laid off workers are adding employees as optimism about economic recovery and higher business demand increases.  Signs of the change include:

• Nearly 40% of employers instituted a hiring freeze in 2001, according to a survey by human resources consulting firm William M. Mercer.  Now they are hiring.  About 70% of firms planned to recruit technical and professional employees this quarter, and 50% of companies plan to recruit managers.
• In a poll of nearly 16,000 firms conducted by the staffing services firm, Manpower, 21% plan to add employees in the second quarter of the year compared with only 16% in the first quarter of the year.
• Nearly 20% of Fortune 1,000 companies expect to hire more than 1,000 employees in 2002, according to a study by management and technology services firm Accenture.

The hiring that is taking place is a new type of hiring.  Employers are making only strategic hires and re-evaluating staffing on a quarterly basis.  It is not just a question of filling openings.  Employers are deciding to hire based on more than business demand.  How the stock market performs, economic forecasts, and even the war on terrorism are being taken into consideration.